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Markets likely to get positive start amid mixed global cues
May-02-2024

Indian markets wiped out early gains and ended lower on Tuesday due to fag-end selling pressure weighed by metal and IT shares. Investors also remained cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve policy meeting outcome. Equity markets remained closed on Wednesday on account of Maharashtra Day. Today, markets are likely to get positive start amid mixed global cues. Sentiments will get boost as India's Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections in gross terms hit a record high in April 2024 at Rs 2.1 lakh crore. Finance ministry said this represents a 12.4 percent year-on-year growth, driven by a strong increase in domestic transactions (up 13.4 percent) and imports (up 8.3 percent). The government had collected Rs 1.87 lakh crore as GST in the same period last year. Some optimism will come as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said GST collection breached the Rs 2 lakh crore milestone on the back of strong economic momentum and efficient tax realisation. Investors will be eyeing manufacturing PMI data to be out later in the day. However, upside may remain capped as foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned net sellers in Indian stocks in April, after remaining net buyers in the two preceding months, as the ongoing geopolitical crisis in the Middle East coupled with strength US bond yield likely pushed investors to take money off their portfolios. There may be some cautiousness as data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed that India's eight core sectors posted a growth of 5.2 percent in March. The growth in India's core sector during the previous month was slower compared to February 2024, which came in at 7.1 percent, it was higher than March 2023 at 4.2 percent. There will be some buzz in oil & gas sector stocks as the government said India has cut its windfall tax on petroleum crude to 8,400 Indian rupees ($100.66) a metric ton from 9,600 rupees with effect from May 1. Sugar stocks will be in focus with report that India's sugar production has been higher than expected this year after the completion of cane crushing at most of its mills, with a late pick-up in rains raising output. There will be some reaction in power stocks with the government data showing that India's power consumption rose around 11 per cent to 144.25 billion units (BU) in April as compared to the year-ago period, mainly due increase in temperatures. Auto stocks will be in limelight reacting to their monthly sales numbers. As per a private report, domestic passenger vehicle sales in April rose by only 1.76 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to 338,341 units, impacted by a high base effect, the ongoing general elections and low demand for small cars. Traders will keep close eye on earnings of India Inc.

The US markets ended mostly in red on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left its key interest rate unchanged, as expected, and indicated that while its next move will likely be a rate cut, continued progress on inflation is not assured. Asian markets are trading mixed on Thursday after Japan's factory activity shrank at a slower pace in April as declines in output and new orders eased, a private-sector survey showed.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks erased all the intraday gains and ended in the negative zone on Tuesday, amid a fag-end sell-off in IT, TECK and Metal shares. That apart, profit booking by investors ahead of the US Federal Reserve policy meeting outcome, coupled with weekly expiry of the Bank Nifty F&O contracts dampened sentiment. Benchmark indices made a positive opening and extended gains as the day progressed as sentiments got a boost with economic think tank National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) stating that the Indian economy has continued to do well in the last two months and forecast of an above-normal monsoon augurs well for the immediate future. NCAER said a range of high-frequency indicators reveal the resilience of the domestic economy with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing at a 16-year high and UPI, the leading digital payments system, touching the highest volume since its inception in 2016. Some support also came with exchange data showing that Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned buyers on Monday after continuous offloading. They bought equities worth Rs 169.09 crore. Sentiments remained up-beat in afternoon deals, taking support from a private report stating that India's services exports will increase to $800 billion by 2030 from $340 billion in 2023, making the external sector resilient to supply-side shocks and reducing rupee volatility. It said India's foreign trade policy announced last year targeted $1 trillion of service exports by 2030. Traders got support as the government is looking at ways to improve the competitiveness of exports amid mounting geopolitical tensions and has begun examining the export credit landscape. The commerce and industry ministry has sought details on exporters' financial needs, challenges faced in accessing export credit and the ways to improve it. However, a sharp reversal in the last hour of trade dragged the indices lower to settle the session in red. Traders turned cautious as Crisil in its report stated that India Inc is likely to log 4-6 per cent revenue growth in the January-March quarter of 2023-24, marking the slowest quarterly growth since recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic which began in September 2021. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 188.50 points or 0.25% to 74,482.78 and the CNX Nifty was down by 38.55 points or 0.17% points to 22,604.85.
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