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Markets extend losing streak amid Middle East concerns, rising crude oil prices
Sep-25-2026

Indian markets ended lower for a seventh straight week as crude prices surged amid renewed Middle East escalation concerns after Saudi Arabia said it intercepted six ballistic missiles launched at the kingdom. Rising global bond yields also dented sentiment. Traders largely overlooked upgrades to India’s GDP growth outlook by various ratings agencies.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Nine key infrastructure sectors’ output growth slows to 4.8% in August: The Ministry of Commerce & Industry in its latest data has showed that nine key infrastructure sectors’ output growth slowed down to 4.8 per cent in August 2026 due to a fall in the output of coal, natural gas, crude oil, and fertiliser.

India's private sector activity gains momentum in September: India's private sector activity gained momentum in September 2026, as output growth ticked higher at both manufacturing and services companies. the HSBC Flash India PMI Composite Output Index was up from 54.3 in August to 56.5 in September.

S&P Global Ratings raises India’s GDP growth forecast to 7.0% for FY27: S&P Global Ratings, in its Asia-Pacific Economic Outlook, has raised its forecast for India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the current fiscal year ending March 31, 2027 (FY27), to 7.0%, from 6.6% previously.

Fitch Ratings raises India's GDP growth forecast to 6.9% for FY27: Fitch Ratings has raised India's GDP growth forecast for FY27 to 6.9% from its earlier estimate of 6.4%, citing strong economic growth of 7.8% in Q1FY27 and overall economic resilience despite the external shock from the US-Iran conflict.

OECD raises India's FY27 GDP growth forecast to 7.1%: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in its Interim Economic Outlook has raised India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27) by 80 basis points to 7.1 per cent, up from 6.3 per cent projected in June.

BSE movement for the week

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex slipped 399.22 points or 0.54% to 73,895.74 during the week ended September 25, 2026. On the sectoral front, S&P BSE TECK was down by 382.05 points or 2.59% to 14,350.39, S&P BSE Information Technology was down by 468.82 points or 1.70% to 27,143.72 and S&P BSE Finance was down by 202.89 points or 1.65% to 12,069.82 were the top losers, while S&P BSE Realty was up by 220.44 points or 3.36% to 6,776.71, S&P BSE Consumer Durables was up by 807.16 points or 1.34% to 61,053.01 and S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods was up by 175.76 points or 1.02% to 17,375.41 were the few gainers on the BSE.

NSE movement for the week

The Nifty slipped 205.90 points or 0.88% to 23,140.50. On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), Nifty IT was down by 693.65 points or 2.40% to 28,160.90, Nifty Mid Cap 100 decreased 1285.25 points or 2.07% to 60,906.00, Bank Nifty was down by 778.30 points or 1.38% to 55,580.40 and Nifty Next 50 lost 246.75 points or 0.34% to 71,778.65.

FII transactions during the week

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in equity segment in the week, with gross purchases of Rs 98,331.61 crore and gross sales of Rs 94,488.83 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 3,842.78 crore. They also stood as net buyers in the debt segment with gross purchases of Rs 11,610.34 crore against gross sales of Rs 10,725.11 crore, resulting in a net inflow of Rs 885.23 crore. In hybrid segment, FIIs stood as net buyers, with gross purchases of Rs 424.83 crore and gross sales of Rs 326.31 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 98.52 crore.

Industry and Economy

Expressing optimism over India’s growth prospects, Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agarwal has said that the new FTAs finalised by India in the last 5-6 years have been designed to provide comfort to long-term investors looking to invest in global supply chains in India. He added that predictability drives investments and the FTAs provide tariff predictability. He noted that these pacts also provide investors access to $60 trillion market sitting back in India. India has finalised trade pacts with the EU, UK, Oman, New Zealand, UAE, Australia and EFTA bloc. Under trade pact with EFTA, India has received a $100 billion FDI commitment over 15 years. New Zealand too has committed to invest $20 billion in India under the deal. He added this trade pacts help diversify exports basket.

Outlook for the coming week

Benchmark indices ended lower in the passing week as investors remained cautious over volatile crude oil price and global bond yields. 

The coming week marks the start of new month. The domestic markets may see some volatility due to Nifty F&O monthly expiry slated during the week. In economic releases, market participants will be watching Industrial Production data, to be out on September 28. Also, investors would be looking forward to Government Budget Value and External Debt data on September 30. HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final data to be out on October 01. Bank Loan & Deposit Growth and Foreign Exchange Reserves data to be out on October 02. Meanwhile, auto company’s stocks will be in limelight ahead of their monthly sales figures.

On the global front, investors would be eyeing economic data from United States (US) starting with Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index on September 28, followed by Redbook, JOLTs Job Openings, and Dallas Fed Services Index on September 29, API Crude Oil Stock, Core PCE Price Index, GDP Growth Rate, and EIA Crude Oil Stocks on September 30, Initial Jobless Claims, and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final on October 01, Unemployment Rate, and Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count on October 02.

Top Gainers 

  • Eternal up by 3.92% was the top gainer on Nifty for the week - Shares of Eternal traded with traction as investors remained optimistic about quick commerce growth in India. Further, the festive demand and continued expansion of the company’s foot print are expected support earnings in September quarter. 
  • Ultratech Cement up by 3.63% was another top gainer on Nifty for the week - Ultratech Cement traded higher after it commissioned 4.6 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of cement capacity, comprising 3.6 mtpa of greenfield integrated capacity at Petnikota, Andhra Pradesh, and 1.0 mtpa through debottlenecking at the company’s existing cement plants in Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), Patratu (Jharkhand), and Nathdwara (Rajasthan).

Top Losers 

  • Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) down by 7.65% was the top loser of the week on Nifty - Investors turned cautious over Auto stocks as rising inflationary pressure sparked fears of hike in interest rates by the central bank. Besides, the uncertainty over the potential listing and leadership of Tata Sons weighed on Tata group stocks, including TMPV.
  • Infosys down by 5.52% was another top loser of the week on Nifty - Infosys faced selling pressure, along with other IT sector stocks, amid rising expectation of another interest rate hike by US Federal Reserve. Investors worry that higher rates may weigh on earnings of IT companies in coming quarters as majority of clients of Indian IT companies are based in US, and higher interest rates may lead to decline in discretionary IT spending.

Technical viewpoints

During the week, CNX Nifty touched the highest level of 23,489.00 on September 22 and lowest level of 23,020.95 on September 25. On the last trading day, the Nifty closed at 23,140.50 with weekly loss of 205.90 points or 0.88 percent. For the coming week, 22,944.63 followed by 22,748.77 are likely to be good support levels for the Nifty, while the index may face resistance at 23,412.68 and further at 23,684.87 levels.

US Market

The U.S. markets traded mostly higher during the week following a report that U.S. and Iranian negotiators in New York are discussing a phased deal to end the standoff in the Persian Gulf.

Some of the major developments during the week are:  

U.S. new home sales surge in August: New home sales surged by 6.4 percent to an annual rate of 684,000 in August after plunging by 4.3 percent to an upwardly revised rate of 643,000 in July.

Weekly jobless claims in U.S. slip in the week ended September 19: Initial jobless claims slipped to 197,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level of 198,000.

Fed’s Barr says more rate hikes likely needed: Barr said that central bank took important step last week to recalibrate short-term borrowing costs in its effort to bring down inflation, and signalled that further rate hikes are likely needed.

US S&P Global Composite PMI rises in September: The S&P Global US Flash Composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September 2026 from 56 in August, pointing to the strongest expansion in private-sector activity since July 2021.

30-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2004: The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield was 5.501% during the week, its highest level since June 2004.

European Market

European markets witnessed some gains during the passing week, on hopes for a resumption of U.S.-Iran talks. However, overall gains remained limited due to concerns emanating from soaring Treasury yields and oil prices.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Eurozone private sector growth strongest since early 2023: The survey data from S&P Global revealed that the flash composite output index advanced to 53.1 in September from 52.0 in the prior month. The score was seen at 51.7.

German private sector growth fastest in 11 months: The flash survey data published by S&P Global revealed that the composite output index climbed to 53.8 in September from 51.8 in August. This was the highest reading since last October. 

French private sector growth rebounds: The flash survey results from S&P Global showed that the headline composite output index posted 51.2 in September, up from 48.5 in August. A score above 50.0 indicates expansion.

Eurozone current account surplus declines in July: The European Central Bank said that the current account surplus fell to EUR 28 billion from EUR 35 billion in June. In the same period last year, the account showed a surplus of EUR 22 billion.

Italy current account surplus shrinks in July: The Bank of Italy reported that the current account surplus dropped to EUR 7.38 billion from EUR 7.85 billion in the corresponding month last year.

Asian Market

Asian markets, barring Shanghai Composite Index, traded in green during week, amid easing crude oil prices following a report that U.S. and Iranian negotiators in New York are discussing a phased deal to end the standoff in the Persian Gulf.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Japan Manufacturing PMI slows to 54.1 in September: The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing PMI declined to 54.1 in September 2026 from 54.9 in the previous month, below market expectations of 55.0, amid expansion in factory activity.

Bank Of Japan raises rate to 1.25%: The Bank of Japan raised its key short-term rate by 25bps to 1.25% in a 7-2 vote at its September meeting, taking borrowing costs to their highest level since April 1995.

Hong Kong trade gap widens sharply in August: Hong Kong’s trade deficit widened to $71.2 billion in August 2026 from $25.4 billion in the same month a year earlier.

Hong Kong inflation remains stable at 1.7%: Hong Kong’s annual inflation rate stood at 1.7% in August 2026, unchanged from the previous month.

China keeps benchmark lending rates unchanged in September: China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the 16th straight month, in line with market expectations. The one-year LPR was kept at 3.00%, while the five-year LPR was at 3.50%.
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