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Crude oil softening drives Indian market higher in passing week
Jul-03-2026

Indian markets ended higher for fourth straight week, gaining around 0.90%, as investors cheered sustained fall in crude oil prices amid the normalization of tanker traffic via Strait of Hormuz. Some support also came amid higher industrial production, robust GST data. However, caution persisted amid uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

India's IIP records 5.1% growth in May: The MoSPI in its report has showed that Index of Industrial Production (IIP) recorded a 5.1 percent (Quick Estimate) year-on-year growth in May 2026, higher than 4.9 percent growth in April 2026, supported by expansion in manufacturing and electricity and gas supply.

June manufacturing growth slows despite softer inflation: The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing PMI eased from 55.0 in May to 54.2 in June. Manufacturing sector activity continued expansion but at a slower pace in June, as growth slowed across output, new orders, export orders and employment.

India's fiscal deficit reaches 9.6% of FY27 target by May-end: Data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) showed that India's fiscal deficit touched 9.6 per cent of FY27 budget target at the end of May 2026. The fiscal deficit was Rs 1.62 lakh crore in value terms at the end of May.

Govt’s gross GST collections rise 13.9% in June: The government data showed that gross goods and services tax (GST) collections rose 13.9 per cent to Rs 1,94,812 crore in June 2026 over Rs 1,71,105 crore in June 2025 as robust import tax collections offset relatively moderate growth in domestic revenues.

June sees slower growth in India’s services sector: The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index fell to 57.4 in June from 59.8 in May. India’s services sector remained in expansionary territory in the month of June but eased to the lowest reading in 17 months.

BSE movement for the week

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex surged 663.44 points or 0.86% to 77,763.91 during the week ended July 03, 2026. On the sectoral front, S&P BSE Realty was up by 503.71 points or 7.81% to 6,951.08, S&P BSE Healthcare was up by 1,345.48 points or 2.76% to 50,088.47 and S&P BSE Consumer Durables was up by 1,329.96 points or 2.24% to 60,699.40 were the top gainers, while S&P BSE Capital Goods was down by 2,197.24 points or 2.71% to 78,740.83, S&P BSE Power was down by 205.83 points or 2.56% to 7,838.06 and S&P BSE Oil & Gas was down by 108.75 points or 0.41% to 26,201.08 were the top losers.

NSE movement for the week

The Nifty jumped 214.85 points or 0.89% to 24,270.85. On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), Nifty Mid Cap 100 increased 394.80 points or 0.64% to 62,190.30, Nifty IT was up by 108.55 points or 0.40% to 27,439.40, and Nifty Next 50 gained 69.40 points or 0.10% to 72,268.95, while Bank Nifty was down by 238.55 points or 0.41% to 57,938.50.

FII transactions during the week

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in equity segment in the week, with gross purchases of Rs 104,587.03 crore and gross sales of Rs 100,196.84 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 4,390.19 crore. They also stood as net buyers in the debt segment with gross purchases of Rs 30,128.37 crore against gross sales of Rs 18,609.47 crore, resulting in a net inflow of Rs 11,518.90 crore. In hybrid segment, FIIs stood as net buyers, with gross purchases of Rs 204.38 crore and gross sales of Rs 202.53 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 1.85 crore.

Industry and Economy

FICCI in its latest edition of the Quarterly Survey on Manufacturing (QSM) has said that manufacturing growth in India is likely to moderate in the quarter ended June 2026 (Q1FY27) compared with the preceding quarter, primarily due to subdued business sentiment amid the ongoing West Asia crisis. The survey indicates a cautious outlook for production activity in Q1FY27 compared to the previous quarter. However, manufacturers’ responses continue to reflect overall positive sentiment, supported by stable domestic fundamentals, which are expected to underpin the sector’s growth trajectory. FICCI said ‘The future investment outlook is steady for the next six months. It further said export diversification efforts by the government and industry seem to be yielding results.

Outlook for the coming week

Indian equity benchmarks ended higher in passing week on account of buying by funds and retail investors as well as continued fall in crude oil prices. Some support also came on bargain hunting in IT stocks after weaker-than-expected US jobs data reduced expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes by the US Fed.

In the coming week, investors will be eyeing the bank loan growth, deposit growth and foreign exchange reserves data, which are scheduled to be released on July 10. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to visit New Zealand in coming week, marking a significant step in bilateral relations as both countries move closer to strengthening economic and strategic ties through a landmark FTA.

On the global front, investors would be eyeing few economic data from world’s largest economy, United States (US), starting with S&P Global Services & Composite PMI and ISM Services PMI on July 06, followed by Export & Import data, Redbook and Consumer Inflation Expectations on July 07, API Crude Oil Stock, Wholesale Inventories, EIA Crude Oil Stocks and FOMC Minutes on July 08, Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales on July 09, and Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count on July 10.

Top Gainers 

  • Eternal up by 10.39% was the top gainer on Nifty for the week - Eternal traded with traction as investors remained bullish on company’s Blinkit business. Despite rising competitive pressure from giants like Amazon, Flipkart and JioMart, investors were optimistic that the Blinkit will benefit from India's long-term quick commerce growth. 
  • Bajaj Finserv up by 7.42% was another top gainer on Nifty for the week - Bajaj Finserv traded higher after its subsidiary - Bajaj Finance reported 24% rise in Assets under management (AUM) at around Rs 546,900 crore as of June 30, 2026, as compared to Rs 441,450 crore as of June 30, 2025. AUM increased by around Rs 36,900 crore during Q1 FY27.

Top Losers 

  • Larsen & Toubro down by 4.50% was the top loser of the week on Nifty - Larsen & Toubro came under pressure amid extension of timeline for the disposal of its stake in L&T Metro Rail (Hyderabad). The estimated completion date for the disposal has been revised to September 30, 2026.
  • Eicher Motors down by 3.40% was another top loser of the week on Nifty - Eicher Motors came under pressure after Delhi government launched its EV Policy 2.0, under which the state will end registration of all new petrol and CNG two-wheelers in Delhi from April 1, 2028. The policy has become a headwind for the company’s motorcycle arm - Royal Enfield as the brand carries just one electric model in its line-up.

Technical viewpoints

During the week, CNX Nifty touched the highest level of 24,378.15 on July 3 and lowest level of 23,829.20 on June 30. On the last trading day, the Nifty closed at 24,270.85 with weekly gain of 214.85 points or 0.89 percent. For the coming week, 23,940.65 followed by 23,610.45 are likely to be good support levels for the Nifty, while the index may face resistance at 24,489.60 and further at 24,708.35 levels.

US Market

The U.S. markets traded higher during the week after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that negotiations with Iran in Qatar were going well. Trump said the denuclearization of Iran is moving along well.

Some of the major developments during the week are:  

U.S. factory orders pull back less than expected in May: Factory orders slumped by 1.3 percent in May after spiking by an upwardly revised 5.3 percent in April. Street had expected factory orders to tumble by 2.0 percent 

Weekly jobless claims in U.S. edge down slightly in week ended June 27: Initial jobless claims slipped to 215,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level of 216,000.

U.S. employment rises much less than expected in June: Non-farm payroll employment rose by 57,000 jobs in June after jumping by 129,000 jobs in May. Street had expected employment to climb by 114,000 jobs.

Consumer confidence index in U.S. inches higher in June: The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index inched up to 91.2 in June from a downwardly revised 90.6 in May.

Manufacturing index in U.S. dips in June: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its manufacturing PMI dipped to 53.3 in June after rising to 54.0 in May.

European Market

European markets witnessed strong gaining rally during the passing week. Easing concerns about inflation & interest rates as well as a new reform package from the German government & some encouraging corporate news contributed to the positive mood in the markets.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Eurozone inflation eases to 2.8%: Inflation weakened to 2.8 percent in June from 3.2 percent in May. This was the lowest rate since March and remained below the forecast of 3.0 percent.

Eurozone manufacturing activity expands moderately: The final manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index dropped to a four-month low of 51.4 in June, down from 51.6 in the previous month. 

Eurozone economic sentiment improves more than forecast: The economic sentiment index rose to 95.0 in June from 93.7 in the previous month. The score was forecast to improve to 94.3.

German inflation softens in June: Consumer price inflation dropped to a four-month low of 2.3 percent in June from May's 2.6 percent. 

French inflation eases more than forecast: The consumer price index posted an annual increase of 1.8 percent in June, following May's 2.4 percent rise. Prices were forecast to grow 2.1 percent.

Asian Market

Asian markets traded in red during the passing week despite data showed U.S. hiring slowed after a three-month streak of overperformance, supporting the case for the Federal Reserve to continue to hold rates steady for now.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Japan industrial production slips 1.7% in May: Industrial Production in Japan decreased 1.70 percent in May of 2026 over the same month in the previous year, marking the first drop in six months.

China's services PMI dips to 54.1 in June: The RatingDog China General Services PMI declined to 54.1 in June 2026 from 54.4 in May. However, the latest reading pointed to the 3-steepest increase in services activity in nearly three years.

China's manufacturing PMI eases to 51.7 in June: The RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI inched down to a three-month low of 51.7 in June 2026 from 51.8 in May, but above forecasts of 51.6.

Hong Kong retail sales at 4-month low: Retail sales in Hong Kong rose 4.8 percent year-on-year in May 2026, slowing from a revised 6.5 percent in the previous month and marking the lowest reading since January.  

South Korea consumer inflation hits 3.2% in June: South Korea’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 3.2 percent in June 2026, marking the fastest pace since December 2023 and up from 3.1 percent in the previous month.
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