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Geopolitical tensions trigger market bloodbath in March
Apr-02-2026

Indian equity benchmarks witnessed a sharp sell-off in March, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia that disrupted crude oil and LNG supplies. The situation intensified after Iran’s Supreme Leader signaled that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed, raising serious concerns over global energy availability. As a result, crude oil prices surged, posing inflationary risks for India, which relies heavily on oil imports. At the same time, a weakening rupee and sustained foreign fund outflows further dampened investor sentiment, leading to heightened volatility and a broad-based market decline.

Some of the key factors during the month:

India's economy grows by 7.8% in Q3 FY26 under new series: According to the new series of national accounts with 2022-23 as the base year, India's economy grew by 7.8% during the October-December quarter (Q3) of Fiscal Year 2025-26 (FY26), up from 7.4% in the corresponding quarter of previous year.

ICRA sees downside risk to India’s FY2027 growth projection amid West Asia crisis: ICRA has said that there will be a downside risk to the India’s growth projection for FY2027 due ongoing crisis in West Asia. ICRA currently projects the real GDP growth at a healthy around 7.1% in FY2027.

India, Chile to enhance cooperation in trade, investment: India and Chile have agreed to enhance cooperation in trade, investment, pharmaceuticals, and technology, etc. The two sides expressed satisfaction at the progress in ongoing negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement.

India sees marginal dip in merchandise exports in February: The commerce ministry in its latest data has showed that India’s merchandise exports slipped marginally by 0.81 per cent to $36.61 billion in February 2026 as compared to $36.91 billion in the same month last year.

Ongoing West Asia conflict likely to pose challenge to India's fiscal position by FY27: Ratings agency ICRA has said that ongoing geopolitical conflict in the West Asia region has triggered a severe surge in global crude oil and natural gas prices, posing a challenge to India's fiscal position by FY2027.

S&P Global Ratings raises India’s GDP growth forecast to 7.1% for FY27: S&P Global Ratings has raised India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 7.1 per cent for fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27), citing strong domestic demand drivers such as private consumption, investment and steady exports.

Unemployment rate falls marginally to 4.9% in February: Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation in its Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) has showed that overall unemployment rate among persons aged 15 years and above fell marginally to 4.9% in February from 5% in January this year.

India’s outward FDI commitments see 35.88% dip in February: The RBI data has showed that India's outward foreign direct investment (FDI) commitments declined by 35.88% to $2,758.90 million in February 2026 as against $4,302.70 million in February 2025, impacted by fall in equity investments.

Govt cuts excise duty on petrol, scraps diesel duty: The government has cut excise duty on petrol to Rs 3 a litre, from Rs 13 a litre earlier, while the levy on diesel has been slashed to nil from Rs 10 earlier, offering relief to OMCs from a sharp spike in global crude oil prices.

India’s FTAs creating new opportunities: Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has said that India’s FTAs are creating new opportunities for the pharmaceutical, healthcare and medical technology sectors, while enabling the country to strengthen its position in global trade.

BSE SENSEX Monthly Gainers

Company      

Last Price 

(March 30’26)

Previous Price 

(February 27’26)

Change 

(%)

Tech Mahindra

1,386.70

1,357.25

2.17

Sun Pharma

1,757.35

1,738.10

1.11

  • Tech Mahindra remained the top gainers for the month of March on the Sensex. Tech Mahindra traded higher along with other IT sector stocks, driven by some value buying following recent pull back in the sector. Besides, Accenture’s second quarter results indicated a steady growth outlook led by artificial intelligence-driven demand, which raised optimism about growth prospects of Indian IT industry.
  • Sun Pharmaceutical Industries remained second in the list of gainers for the month on Sensex. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries has secured United States Food and Drug Administration’s (USFDA) acceptance for review of the supplemental Biologics License Application (sBLA) for ILUMYA for the treatment of adults with active psoriatic arthritis. The FDA regulatory action date for this sBLA is expected by October 29, 2026. If approved, this would mark a new indication for ILUMYA following its USFDA approval in 2018 for the treatment of adults with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis who are candidates for systemic therapy or phototherapy. 

BSE SENSEX Monthly Losers

Company      

Last Price 

(March 30’26)

Previous Price 

(February 27’26)

Change 

(%)

Bajaj Finance

801.40

996.50

19.58

State Bank of India

979.80

1202.00

18.49

Interglobe Aviation

3943.75

4823.05

18.23

Larsen & Toubro

3504.30

4280.55

18.13

Bajaj Finserv

1631.60

1992.70

18.12

  • Bajaj Finance remained the top loser for the month of March on the Sensex. Bajaj Finance traded under pressure along with other non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) as investors raised concerns that Indian banks and NBFCs could face rising credit costs, tighter liquidity and pressure on corporate and household borrowers if the conflict in West Asia prolonged, disrupting the global energy supply.
  • State Bank of India remained another loser for the month on Sensex. Banking stocks along with State Bank of India came under selling pressure after the RBI capped the open positions that banks can hold in the onshore currency market at $100 million at the end of each trading day. The new rules will come into effect from April 10 and it is likely to force banks to unwind their large positions and curb one-sided bets against the rupee.

The Nifty February expiry rollover is at 77.77% on Tuesday compared to 68.23% on same day of previous expiry. The Nifty February rollover is higher than its three-month average of 70.60% and higher than its six-months average of 73.24%. The Bank Nifty February expiry rollover is at 85.96% on Tuesday as compared to 74.25% on same day of previous expiry. The Bank Nifty February expiry rollover is higher than its three-months average of 73.02% and higher than its six-month average of 75.63%. On sectoral front, Capital Goods (95.23%), Realty (95.13%) and Cement (94.62%) stocks witnessed the highest rollover of positions in February expiry, while the Oil and Gas (84.68%), Pharma (89.83%) and Power (90.16%) space witnessed relatively low rolls into the February series. In stock wise rollovers, highest rollover was observed in Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (98.64%), JSW Steel (98.51%) and Astral (98.33%), while rollover activity was relatively low in KPIT Technologies (72.27%), ONGC (73.34%) and Sun Pharma (76.67%).
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