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Global geopolitical tensions weigh on markets; value buying limits losses
Apr-02-2026

Indian markets ended the passing week in the red as investors reacted to U.S. President Donald Trump’s address on the Middle East conflict. Additionally, foreign fund outflows weighed on domestic sentiment. However, the downside remained limited due to value buying at lower levels, supported by favorable domestic macroeconomic data including IIP, GST and unemployment.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Industrial growth rises to 5.2% in February: The Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation in its latest report has showed that Index of Industrial Production (IIP) recorded a 5.2% (Quick Estimate) Y-o-Y growth in February 2026, which is slightly higher than 5.1% growth in January 2026.

India’s overall unemployment rate eases to 3.1% in 2025: Periodic Labour Force Survey 2025, released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, showed the India’s overall unemployment rate for individuals aged 15 years and above eased slightly to 3.1% in 2025 as compared to 3.2% a year ago.

India's fiscal deficit reaches 80.4% of full year target in April-February of FY26: The data released by the Controller General of Accounts showed that India’s fiscal deficit has reached 80.4% of the budget estimate for the FY26 as of April-February period of FY26.

Govt reports 8.8% growth in GST collection for March: The government data has showed that total Gross GST collection increased to over Rs 2,00,064 crore in March 2026 as compared to Rs 1,83,845 crore in March 2025, a growth of 8.8%, aided by tax mop-ups from domestic sales as well as imports.

India's manufacturing PMI eases to 53.9 in March: India manufacturing sector growth eased to 53.9 in March from 56.9 in February, marking its lowest level since June 2022, amid market uncertainty and the war in the Middle East which led to softer increases in new orders and output.

BSE movement for the week

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex slipped 263.67 points or 0.36% to 73,319.55 during the week ended April 02, 2026. On the sectoral front, S&P BSE Healthcare was down by 1,056.33 points or 2.49% to 41,371.63, S&P BSE BANKEX was down by 807.52 points or 1.37% to 58,009.41 and S&P BSE Finance was down by 137.32 points or 1.20% to 11,273.19 were the top losers on the BSE sectoral front, while S&P BSE Information Technology was up by 840.61 points or 2.95% to 29,288.17, S&P BSE Metal was up by 979.39 points or 2.66% to 37,815.66, S&P BSE Capital Goods was up by 657.69 points or 1.00% to 66,360.28 were the few gainers on the BSE.

NSE movement for the week

The Nifty slipped 106.50 or 0.47% to 22,713.10. On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), Bank Nifty was down by 725.85 points or 1.39% to 51,548.75, Nifty Mid Cap 100 decreased 420.75 points or 0.78% to 53,677.05 and Nifty Next 50 lost 85.45 points or 0.14% to 61,957.60. On the other side, Nifty IT was up by 899.80 points or 3.05% to 30,441.45.

FII transactions during the week

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in equity segment in the week, with gross purchases of Rs 22,117.36 crore and gross sales of Rs 26,082.07 crore, leading to a net outflow of Rs 3,964.71 crore. They also stood as net buyers in the debt segment with gross purchases of Rs 3,377.11 crore against gross sales of Rs 2,158.75 crore, resulting in a net inflow of Rs 1,218.36 crore. In hybrid segment, FIIs stood as net buyers, with gross purchases of Rs 41.87 crore and gross sales of Rs 25.79 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 16.08 crore. (Provisional)

Industry and Economy

Raising concerns over India’s growth prospects, the Finance Ministry’s Department of Economic Affairs in its Monthly Economic Review for March has said that the near-term outlook remains uncertain, with external shocks particularly the West Asia crisis posing downside risks to growth through elevated input costs and potential supply disruptions. Though, it noted that strong macroeconomic fundamentals and robust domestic demand may help cushion the impact. The geopolitical developments have introduced a complex and multi-layered set of risks for India, given its position as a major energy importer with strong trade, investment, and remittance linkages with the West Asia region. It said the recent oil price shock presents an upside risk to inflation trajectory in medium term.

Outlook for the coming week

Indian markets ended the passing week in red due to escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, which entered their fifth week, as the US-Iran-Israel conflict widened amid Houthi attacks on Israel.

On the economy data front, investors will be eyeing HSBC Composite PMI Final and HSBC Services PMI Final data which are going to be out on April 06. Besides, RBI Interest Rate Decision and Cash Reserve Ratio data are scheduled to be release on April 08.

The coming week is likely to be a crucial one for Indian equity markets as it marks the start of Q4 earning season, which would formally commence with the earnings of IT bellwether - TCS on April 09, 2026.

On the global front, investors will be eyeing macro-economic data from world’s largest economy, United States, starting with ISM Services PMI, ISM Services Business Activity, ISM Services Prices on April 06, Durable Goods Orders, Redbook YoY on April 07, FOMC Minutes April 08, GDP Growth Rate, Personal Income, GDP Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims on April 09, Fed Balance Sheet, Core Inflation Rate, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count on April 10.

Top Gainers 

  • Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) up by 6.29% was the top gainer on Nifty for the week - ONGC traded higher after it started gas production from Platform B-12-24P of its Daman Upside Development Project in the western offshore. Besides, investors favoured oil and gas explorer stocks as they were optimistic that the high energy prices, amid West Asia conflict, will benefit such companies in upcoming quarters.
  • Hindalco Industries up by 5.48% was another top gainer on Nifty for the week - Hindalco Industries, along with other aluminium manufacturing companies, caught investors’ attention after aluminium prices sky rocketed to trade near four years high as conflict in West Asia continued to disrupt supply in the region.

Top Losers 

  • HDFC Life Insurance by 7.64% was the top loser of the week on Nifty - HDFC Life faced selling pressure after reports indicated that insurance regulator - IRDAI is considering proposing changes to the commission structure with possible amendments such as staggered commission, commission caps for particular channels, etc. Investors worry that this may pose near term risk including the need for commission renegotiations, product refilling, etc.
  • Shriram Finance down by 6.74% was another top loser of the week on Nifty - Shriram Finance continued to remain under pressure for yet another week as investors raised concerns that Indian banks and non-bank lenders including non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) could face rising credit costs, tighter liquidity and pressure on corporate and household borrowers if the conflict in West Asia prolonged, disrupting the global energy supply.

Technical viewpoints

During the week, CNX Nifty touched the highest level of 23,186.10 on April 1 and lowest level of 22,182.55 on April 2. On the last trading day, the Nifty closed at 22,713.10 with weekly loss of 106.50 points or 0.47 percent. For the coming week, 22,201.73 followed by 21,690.37 are likely to be good support levels for the Nifty, while the index may face resistance at 23,205.28 and further at 23,697.47 levels.

US Market

The US markets traded higher during the week as talks of ceasefire between Tehran-Washington propelled optimism that Middle East conflict will resolve soon. Also, President Trump’s remark that the war could end in two to three weeks, bolstered peace hopes.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

US business inventories edge down: US business inventories fell slightly by 0.1% month-over-month in January 2026, after a revised flat reading in December, defying street forecasts of a 0.1% rise.

ISM Manufacturing PMI for US increases in March: The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US increased to 52.7 in March 2026 from 52.4 in February and above forecasts of 52.5. The reading pointed to strongest growth in factory activity since August 2022.

S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI stands at 52.3 in March: The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI held at 52.3 in March 2026, slightly below the preliminary estimate of 52.4 but up from 51.6 in February, driven by stronger output and new orders.

US retail sales rise in February: Retail sales in the US jumped 0.6% month-over-month in February 2026, rebounding from a 0.1% drop in January and above forecasts of a 0.5% gain. It is the strongest performance in seven months.

Private sector adds 62,000 jobs in March: Private businesses in the US added a net 62,000 jobs in March of 2026, extending the upwardly revised 66,000 in February and above market expectations of a 40,000 increase.

European Market

European markets remained firm during the passing week, despite Middle East War concerns. Sentiments remained upbeat, as the euro area manufacturing sector expanded at the fastest pace since mid-2022 in March.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Eurozone manufacturing sector expands most since mid-2022: The final manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index climbed to a 45-month high of 51.6 in March from 50.8 in February and remained moderately above the flash estimate of 51.4.

Eurozone inflation rises on energy prices: The flash estimate from Eurostat revealed that inflation rose to 2.5 percent in March from 1.9 percent in February. A similar higher rate was last seen in January 2025.

Eurozone economic confidence weakest in 6 months: The economic confidence index fell to 96.6 in March, the highest since last September, from 98.2 in the previous month. The score was seen at 96.5.

UK GDP expands 0.1% in Q4: Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.1 percent from the prior quarter, which was unrevised from the previous estimate and followed similar growth in the third quarter.

German unemployment remains stable: The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.3 percent in March and matched expectations. The number of people out of work also remained at the same level as in February, at 2.977 million.

Asian Market

Asian markets, barring KLSE composite index, traded higher during the passing week, even as the U.S. President Donald Trump's highly anticipated address to the nation on the war in the Middle East damped hopes for a swift resolution to the conflict.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Japan retail sales slip 0.2% in February: Retail sales in Japan fell 0.2% y-o-y in February 2026, reversing a 1.8% growth in the previous month and missing market expectations for a 0.8% gain.

China factory growth slows more than expected: The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.8 in March 2026 from 52.1 in February, signaling a slowdown in factory expansion and below the expected 51.6.

South Korea trade surplus reaches new record: South Korea's trade surplus surged to a fresh record of $25.74 billion in March 2026, up from $4.99 billion in the same month a year earlier, beating market expectations of a $21.2 billion surplus.

South Korea annual inflation rate rises in March: South Korea’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.2% in March 2026, up from 2.0% in the previous two months but less than market forecasts of 2.4%.

Hong Kong retail sales jump in March: Retail sales in Hong Kong surged 19.3% year-on-year in March, much faster than the 5.5% rise in February.
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