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Rising crude oil prices amid geopolitical conflict drag markets lower in the passing week
Mar-06-2026

Indian markets witnessed bloodbath in the holiday-shortened week as traders remained concerned about the economic impact of the intensifying conflict in the Middle East, with crude oil prices spiking above $81 a barrel amid supply disruptions. There were concerns that elevated crude oil prices could add to inflationary pressure on India due to heavy dependence on oil imports.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

India's economy grows by 7.8% in Q3 FY26 under new series: According to the new series of national accounts with 2022-23 as the base year, India's economy grew by 7.8% during the October-December quarter (Q3) of Fiscal Year 2025-26 (FY26), up from 7.4% in the corresponding quarter of previous year.

Govt reports 8.1% increase in GST collection for February: The government data showed that gross GST collection rose 8.1% to over Rs 1.83 lakh crore in February 2026 as compared to Rs 1.69 lakh crore collected in February 2025. The rise was driven largely by strong growth in tax collections from imports. 

IIP growth slows to 4.8% in January: The Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation in its report has showed that Index of Industrial Production (IIP) recorded a 4.8% Y-o-Y growth in January 2026, which is lower than 7.8% in December 2025 amid sluggish performance by manufacturing, mining sectors.

PMI signals robust expansion in India’s manufacturing activity during February: India manufacturing growth hit four-month high in February. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surged to 56.9 in February from 55.4 in January.

India’s services sector witness softer growth in February: Seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index slowed down to 58.1 in February from 58.5 in January. HSBC India Composite PMI Output Index - measures manufacturing, services - surged to 58.9 in February from 58.4 in January.

BSE movement for the week

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex slipped 2368.29 points or 2.91% to 78,918.90 during the week ended March 06, 2026. On the sectoral front, S&P BSE Realty was down by 297.11 points or 4.90% to 5,770.47, S&P BSE Oil & Gas was down by 1,434.34 points or 4.85% to 28,161.32, S&P BSE BANKEX was down by 3,148.35 points or 4.62% to 64,991.19, S&P BSE Finance was down by 570.02 points or 4.37% to 12,481.70 and S&P BSE Consumer Discretionary Goods & Services was down by 368.34 points or 3.92% to 9,028.28 were the top losers, while S&P BSE Capital Goods was up by 163.99 points or 0.23% to 70618.46 was the only gainer on the BSE.

NSE movement for the week

The Nifty slipped 728.20 points or 2.89% to 24,450.45. On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), Bank Nifty was down by 2745.75 points or 4.54% to 57,783.25, Nifty Next 50 lost 2234.25 points or 3.21% to 67,476.65, Nifty Mid Cap 100 decreased 1722.25 points or 2.91% to 57,393.35 and Nifty IT was down by 465.45 points or 1.52% to 30,138.40.

FII transactions during the week

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in equity segment in the week, with gross purchases of Rs 89,038.33 crore and gross sales of Rs 110,038.12 crore, leading to a net outflow of Rs 20,999.79 crore. They also stood as net buyers in the debt segment with gross purchases of Rs 20,814.28 crore against gross sales of Rs 20,020.25 crore, resulting in a net inflow of Rs 794.03 crore. In hybrid segment, FIIs stood as net sellers, with gross purchases of Rs 152.60 crore and gross sales of Rs 615.55 crore, leading to a net outflow of Rs 462.95 crore.

Industry and Economy

Raising concerns over the impact of the ongoing crisis between Iran and US-Israel, Moody’s Ratings in a note on oil supply shock in prolonged West Asia conflict has said that the escalating West Asia conflict could spike energy prices and disrupt supplies, adding pressure on India’s rupee, inflation and current account deficit, as the country is highly dependent on crude oil and LNG imports from the region. The country imports about 46 per cent of its oil and natural gas requirements from West Asia. Supplies from the region have been disrupted as the widening West Asia conflict has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for crude oil and LNG exports from the region. 

Outlook for the coming week

Indian markets ended the passing week with hefty losses following a sharp spike in crude oil prices amid escalating tensions in West Asia.

In the coming week, traders will be looking for the major macro-economic data starting with Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to be out on March 12. Also, market participants will be eyeing the Foreign Exchange Reserves data, which going to be out on March 13.

On the global front, investors will be eyeing economic data from United States, starting with Consumer Inflation Expectations on March 09, Redbook YoY on March 10, Core Inflation Rate on March 11, Balance of Trade and Initial Jobless Claims on March 12, Fed Balance Sheet, GDP Growth Rate and Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count on March 13.

Top Gainers 

  • Bharat Electronics up by 4.32% was the top gainer on Nifty for the week - Bharat Electronics grabbed traders’ attention along with other defence stocks amid escalating tensions in Middle East after Israel and the U.S. conduct Air strikes in Iran. The conflict has raised expectation of higher export opportunities in the sector.  
  • Hindalco Industries up by 1.87% was another top gainer on Nifty for the week - Hindalco Industries traded higher along with other metal stocks, benefited from rise in metal prices. The global metal prices rose on supply concerns amid conflict in Middle East.

Top Losers 

  • Interglobe Aviation (IndiGo) by 10.73% was the top loser of the week on Nifty - IndiGo faced selling pressure after the company cancelled more than 500 flights to the Middle East and select international destinations between February 28, 2026 and March 3, 2026. The flights were cancelled due to the airspace restrictions over Iran and the Middle East. Besides, investors worry that rise in crude prices could pose an additional risk to earnings.
  • Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) down by 10.42% was another top loser of the week on Nifty - TMPV came under pressure along with other Auto stocks as geopolitical tensions & high crude oil prices weighed on investors’ sentiments. Meanwhile, Federation ‌of Automobile Dealers Associations noted that dealer sentiment for March 2026 remains largely positive, and demand is likely to be supported by the confluence of multiple festivals.

Technical viewpoints

During the week, CNX Nifty touched the highest level of 25,476.40 on March 2 and lowest level of 24,305.40 on March 4. On the last trading day, the Nifty closed at 24,450.45 with weekly loss of 728.20 points or 2.89 percent. For the coming week, 24,011.77 followed by 23,573.08 are likely to be good support levels for the Nifty, while the index may face resistance at 25,182.77 and further at 25,915.08 levels.

US Market

The U.S. markets traded mostly in red during the week after the U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes against Iran. Iran retaliated by launching waves of drones and missiles on countries across the Middle East.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

U.S. import prices rise slightly more than expected in January: Import prices rose by 0.2 percent in January, matching an upwardly revised uptick in December. Street had expected import prices to inch up by 0.1 percent.

Labor productivity in U.S. jumps much more than expected in Q4: Labor productivity shot up by 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Street had expected labor productivity to jump by 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter.

U.S. jobless claims unchanged in the week ended February 28: The Labor Department said initial jobless claims came in at 213,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level.

Private sector job growth in U.S. exceeds estimates in February: Private sector employment climbed by 63,000 jobs in February. Street had expected private sector employment to grow by 48,000 jobs.

U.S. manufacturing index edges down less than expected in February: The ISM said its manufacturing PMI edged down to 52.4 in February after surging to 52.6 in January. Street had expected the index to dip to 51.8.

European Market

European markets witnessed bloodbath during the week as escalating Middle East tensions increased investors risk aversion. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East and a persistent fall in oil and gas supplies from the region could cause a spike in inflation.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Eurozone retail sales fall unexpectedly: Eurozone retail sales fell 0.1 percent month-on-month in January, confounding expectations for an increase of 0.3 percent. This was the first fall in five months. Sales had increased 0.2 percent in December.

UK construction sector contracts further: The UK construction sector contracted for the fourteenth consecutive month in February. The construction Purchasing Managers' Index dropped to 44.5 from January's seven-month high of 46.4.

UK Halifax house prices rise most in 4 months: UK house prices increased at the fastest pace in four months in February. House prices registered an annual growth of 1.3 percent in February, following a 1.1 percent rise in January.

Germany construction activity downturn deepens: Germany's construction activity registered back-to-back decreases in February. The HCOB construction Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 43.7 in February from 44.7 in January.

Italy retail sales rebound 0.6% in January: Italy's retail sales increased more-than-expected in January after falling in the previous month. The sales value rose 0.6 percent on a monthly basis in January, reversing a 0.7 percent fall in December.

Asian Market

Asian markets traded lower during the passing week amid worries of a long-term supply disruption and the consequent economic impact due to expanding conflict in the Middle East weigh on the market.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Japan Service PMI ticks higher in February: The latest survey from S&P Global revealed that the services sector in Japan continued to expand in February and at a faster pace, with a services PMI score of 53.8. That's up from 53.7 in January.

Japan's jobless rate rises in January: The jobless rate in Japan came in at a seasonally adjusted 2.7 percent in January. That was above expectations for 2.6 percent, which would have been unchanged from the December reading.

China NBS Manufacturing PMI falls to 4-month low: China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.0 in February 2026 from 49.3 in the previous month, slightly below market forecasts of 49.1 and marking the lowest since October.

China services growth at near 3-year high: The RatingDog China General Services PMI surged to 56.7 in February 2026 from 52.3 in January, pointing to the highest reading since May 2023.

Hong Kong retail sales growth eases to 5.5%: Hong Kong's retail sales growth moderated in January to the lowest level in five months. The value of retail sales climbed 5.5% year-on-year in January, slower than the 6.6 percent rise in December.
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