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Markets garner gains in passing week amid US-India trade deal optimism
Feb-20-2026

Indian markets closed with modest gains in passing week, driven by value buying in beaten-down but fundamentally strong stocks and optimism surrounding the India-US trade deal. However, upside remained capped due to selling pressure amid renewed concerns over AI disruption, coupled with escalating US-Iran tensions and a subsequent surge in crude oil prices.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

India's WPI inflation sees rise in January: India's wholesale price index (WPI) inflation rose in the month of January 2026 at 1.81% as compared to 0.83% in December 2025, driven by higher prices of non-food articles, crude petroleum & natural gas and manufactured items.

India sees marginal growth in exports in January: The commerce ministry data showed India’s merchandise exports rose marginally by 0.61% Y-o-Y to $36.56 billion in January 2026. Merchandise imports rose 19.2% Y-o-Y to $71.24 billion in January 2026. As a result, trade deficit widened to $34.68 billion.

Unemployment in India rises moderately in January: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) in its Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) has showed the unemployment rate among people aged 15 and above grew moderately to 5% in the month of January 2026 from 4.8% in December 2025.

India’s private sector grows in February: The HSBC Flash India PMI Composite Output Index - measures M-o-M change the combined output of manufacturing and service sectors - rose from 58.4 in January to 59.3 in February, with quicker increases in total new orders and international sales.

Indian auto sector may witness modest 3-6% volume growth across various segments in FY27: Rating agency ICRA has said the Indian automotive industry is expected to see a normalisation of wholesale volume growth, with a modest expansion of 3-6% expected across various segments in FY27.

BSE movement for the week

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex surged 187.95 points or 0.23% to 82,814.71 during the week ended February 20, 2026. On the sectoral front, S&P BSE Power was up by 170.10 points or 2.53% to 6,883.67, S&P BSE PSU was up by 478.99 points or 2.20% to 22,276.31, and S&P BSE Capital Goods was up by 1,369.69 points or 2.01% to 69,612.86 were the top gainers, while S&P BSE Oil & Gas was down by 21,711.37 points or 75.93% to 6,883.67, S&P BSE Information Technology was down by 539.53 points or 1.71% to 31,051.70, and S&P BSE Consumer Discretionary Goods & Services was down by 158.62 points or 1.64% to 9,508.12 were the top losers.

NSE movement for the week

The Nifty surged 100.15 points or 0.39% to 25,571.25. On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), Bank Nifty was up by 985.35 points or 1.64% to 61,172.00, Nifty Next 50 gained 626.90 points or 0.91% to 69,453.65 and Nifty Mid Cap 100 increased 75.95 points or 0.13% to 59,513.95, while Nifty IT was down by 677.45 points or 2.07% to 32,004.05.

FII transactions during the week

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in equity segment in the week, with gross purchases of Rs 54,419.77 crore and gross sales of Rs 57,182.91 crore, leading to a net outflow of Rs 2,763.14 crore. They also stood as net buyers in the debt segment with gross purchases of Rs 6,781.73 crore against gross sales of Rs 1,853.18 crore, resulting in a net inflow of Rs 4,928.55 crore. In hybrid segment, FIIs stood as net sellers, with gross purchases of Rs 110.01 crore and gross sales of Rs 311.45 crore, leading to a net outflow of Rs 201.44 crore.

Industry and Economy

Crisil in its latest report has said that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation or retail inflation is likely to rise to around 4.3% in fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27) from an estimated 2.5% for FY26. With assumption of a normal monsoon in 2026, it noted that food prices are likely to remain broadly benign, while a low base effect will push food inflation higher than FY26. It also said the reduced weight of food in the new series should limit the extent of this rise. The weight of food in the revised CPI series has declined to 36.75% from 45.86% earlier. As per the report, non-food inflation, supported by easing precious metals inflation and benign global oil and commodity prices, should restrain the overall inflation. 

Outlook for the coming week

In the passing week, Indian equity benchmarks ended in green amid optimism about India-US trade deal.  A team of Indian officials will visit the U.S. next week to finalise the legal text for an interim trade agreement, which is likely to be signed in March.

Indian equity markets are likely to witness choppiness in the coming week as traders will adjust their position on ahead of monthly expiry of F&O series on February 24. On the economic data front, market participants will be eyeing GDP Growth Rate data, Government Budget Value, Foreign Exchange Reserves and Infrastructure Output YoY data are scheduled to be released on February 27.

On the global front, investors will be eyeing macro-economic reports from world’s largest economy, United States, starting with Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index on February 23, Redbook YoY, CB Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index on February 24, Fed Balance Sheet and Initial Jobless Claims on February 26, producer prices index MoM, Chicago PMI and Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count on February 27.

Top Gainers 

  • Larsen & Toubro (L&T) up by 4.65% was the top gainer on Nifty for the week - L&T’s next generation sovereign AI cloud and digital infrastructure platform -- Larsen & Toubro Vyoma (Vyoma) has launched its Sovereign Cloud Platform (SCP), an AI-first cloud infrastructure designed to meet the growing enterprise and public-sector demand for data sovereignty, regulatory compliance and secure AI adoption.
  • HDFC Life Insurance up by 3.69% was another top gainer on Nifty for the week - HDFC Life witnessed value buying after recent fall. It reported marginal fall of in consolidated net profit at Rs 418.19 crore for Q3FY26 over Q3FY25. Meanwhile, some of life insurance stocks traded higher amid reports that India operationalised up to 100% FDI in insurance sector, a move aimed at deepening insurance penetration and attracting overseas investment. 

Top Losers 

  • Eternal by 9.58% was the top loser of the week on Nifty - Shares of Eternal faced selling pressure after some reports indicated that the company’s co-founder Deepinder Goyal pare some of his stake in the company. Goyal had stepped down CEO of the company and serves as the Vice Chairman of the company.
  • Tech Mahindra down by 5.19% was another top loser of the week on Nifty - Tech Mahindra, along with other IT companies, came under pressure amid broad-based global selling in technology stocks. The investors were worried about impact of latest AI tools on the current business models of IT companies.

Technical viewpoints

During the week, CNX Nifty touched the highest level of 25,885.30 on February 19 and lowest level of 25,372.70 on February 16. On the last trading day, the Nifty closed at 25,571.25 with weekly gain of 100.15 points or 0.39 percent. For the coming week, 25,334.20 followed by 25,097.15 are likely to be good support levels for the Nifty, while the index may face resistance at 25,846.80 and further at 26,122.35 levels.

US Market

The U.S. markets traded mostly higher during the week after the minutes of the Fed's January 27-28, 2026 meeting said several participants felt further rate cuts would likely be appropriate if inflation were to decline in line with their expectations.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

U.S. pending home sales see further downside in January: The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index slid by 0.8 percent to 70.9 in January after plunging by 7.4 percent to a revised 71.5 in December.

Leading economic index in U.S. decreases in December: The leading economic index dipped by 0.2 percent in December after falling by 0.3 percent in November.

Philly fed index climbs in February: The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current general activity climbed to 16.3 in February from 12.6 in January, with a positive reading indicating growth. 

U.S. trade deficit widens in December: The trade deficit grew to $70.3 billion in December from a revised $53.0 billion in November. Street had expected the trade deficit to shrink to $55.8 billion.

Weekly jobless claims in U.S. decrease in the week ended February 14: Initial jobless claims slid to 206,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week's revised level of 229,000.

European Market

European stocks garnered some gains during passing week amid easing AI concerns. The upside capped amid simmering geopolitical tensions after US President Donald Trump set a deadline of 10-15 days for Iran to agree nuclear deal or face bad things.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Eurozone current account surplus increases: The European Central Bank reported that the trade surplus rose to EUR 15 billion in December from EUR 9 billion in the previous month.

Italy current account surplus rises in December: The Bank of Italy reported that the current account surplus rose to EUR 3.1 billion from EUR 2.5 billion last year.

French inflation weakest since 2020: The consumer price index rose only 0.3 percent on a yearly basis in January, following the 0.8 percent increase seen in December.

Italy trade surplus grows in December: The trade surplus rose to a 5-month high of EUR 6.04 billion in December from a EUR 5.15 billion surplus in the corresponding month last year.

Eurozone industrial output falls for first time in 4 months: Industrial production logged a monthly fall of 1.4 percent in December, in contrast to the 0.3 percent increase seen in November.

Asian Market

Asian markets traded higher during the passing week despite escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and risks linked to massive investments in artificial intelligence. Regional trading volumes were thin amid Lunar New Year holidays in China and Taiwan.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Japan core inflation slows to 2-year low: Japan’s core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, rose 2% year-on-year in January 2026, cooling from 2.4% in December and marking the weakest pace of growth in two years.

Japan Manufacturing PMI jumps in February: The latest survey from Jibun Bank revealed that the manufacturing sector in Japan continued to expand in February, and at a faster pace, with a manufacturing PMI score of 52.8, up from 51.5 in January.

Japan's economy barely grew in December quarter: Japan reported its economy grew a miserly 0.2% annualised in the December quarter, far below the 1.6% gain forecast as government spending dragged on activity.  

Japan core machinery orders jump in December: The value of core machinery orders in Japan was up a seasonally adjusted 19.1 percent on month in December-coming in at 1,052.5 billion yen.

Japan logs trade deficit in January: Japan posted a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade deficit of 1.152 trillion yen in January better than expectations for deficit of 2.142 trillion yen following 113.5 billion yen surplus in December.
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