HOME > MARKETS > MARKET COMMENTARY
  MARKET COMMENTARY
EQUITY
Trump's fresh tariff threats, geopolitical tensions drag Indian markets lower in passing week
Jan-09-2026

Indian markets witnessed blood bath in passing week amid concerns over fresh tariff threats from Trump and continued foreign fund outflows. Trump signed a bill that could potentially put 500% tariff on goods from India if it continues to buy oil from Russia. Besides, geopolitical tensions between US and Venezuela, as well as between China and Japan, weighed down on sentiments.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

India’s GDP to grow by 7.4% in FY26: The National Statistics Office (NSO) in its the First Advance Estimates has estimated that India’s Real GDP to grow by 7.4% in FY 2025-26 against the growth rate of 6.5% during FY 2024-25, buoyant by strong performance in the services and manufacturing sectors. 

December sees mild cooling in services sector activity: India services sector growth eased in December but was well above the neutral mark of 50.0 to signal substantial upturn in output. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index slowed to 58.0 in December from 59.8 in November.

Ind-Ra predicts FY27 GDP growth at 6.9%: Ind-Ra has said that India’s GDP is likely to grow by 6.9% in FY27. Key reforms such as Goods and Services Tax, income tax cuts, and Free Trade Agreements are poised to act as economic catalysts and safeguard economy from global challenges, especially the US tariffs.

RBI data shows growth in bank credit to industry in November 2025: The Reserve Bank India (RBI) in its latest data has showed that bank credit to industry increased at a faster rate of 9.6 percent in November 2025 as against 8.3 percent in the same month of the preceding year.

Retail vehicle sales across all categories up in 2025: The Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations has said that retail vehicle sales across all categories in India rose by 7.71% to 2,81,61,228 units in 2025, up from 2,61,45,445 units in 2024, with GST 2.0 helping overcome a subdued start to the year.

BSE movement for the week

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex slipped 2185.77 points or 2.55% to 83,576.24 during the week ended January 09, 2026. The BSE Midcap index losses 1234.38 points or 2.60% to 46,304.80, while Smallcap index slipped 2008.02 points or 3.87% to 49,912.11. On the sectoral front, S&P BSE Oil & Gas was down by 1,646.43 points or 5.69% to 27,263.77, S&P BSE Power was down by 366.95 points or 5.46% to 6,358.94, S&P BSE Capital Goods was down by 2,290.03 points or 3.37% to 65,582.69, S&P BSE Metal was down by 1,047.55 points or 2.78% to 36,608.64 and S&P BSE PSU was down by 546.24 points or 2.59% to 20,527.51 were the top losers, while S&P BSE Consumer Durables was up by 1016.14 points or 1.68% to 61498.07 was the only gainer on the BSE.

NSE movement for the week

The Nifty slipped 645.25 points or 2.45% to 25,683.30. On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), Nifty Next 50 lost 1924.70 points or 2.73% to 68,492.20, Nifty Mid Cap 100 decreased 1617.75 points or 2.64% to 59,748.15, Bank Nifty was down by 899.40 points or 1.50% to 59,251.55, and Nifty IT was down by 293.10 points or 0.76% to 38,027.20.

FII transactions during the week

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in equity segment in the week, with gross purchases of Rs 62,555.61 crore and gross sales of Rs 66,736.70 crore, leading to a net outflow of Rs 4,181.09 crore. They also stood as net buyers in the debt segment with gross purchases of Rs 15,253.44 crore against gross sales of Rs 13,280.68 crore, resulting in a net inflow of Rs 1,972.76 crore. In hybrid segment, FIIs stood as net buyers, with gross purchases of Rs 258.84 crore and gross sales of Rs 169.95 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 88.89 crore.

Industry and Economy

A research report from State Bank of India’s Economic Research Department has estimated that Indian economy likely to grow at 7.5% in 2025-26 with upward bias. This projection is marginally higher from NSO’ estimate. The National Statistics Office put GDP growth in 2025-26 at 7.4% as compared to 6.5% in the previous fiscal. The RBI had projected the growth rate at 7.3%. The report said historically, the difference between RBI’s estimate and NSO’s estimate is 20-30 basis points and hence the 7.4% estimate is quite expected and reasonable. It noted that total expenditure is also expected to be lower, leading to fiscal deficit of Rs 15.85 lakh crore compared to the budgeted Rs 15.69 lakh crore. 

Outlook for the coming week

In the passing week, Indian markets ended with hefty losses amid fresh warning from the US to further increase tariffs against India.

In the coming week, traders will be eyeing the India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) slated to be released on January 12. India's wholesale prices index (WPI) data is scheduled to be release on January 14. Investors will be watching for the Balance of Trade data, which is going to be out on January 15. Foreign Exchange Reserves data is going to be out on January 16.

Market participants will be eyeing some important quarterly numbers to be released during next week including HCL Technologies, TCS, Tata Elxsi, HDFC Asset Management Company, Infosys, L&T Technology Services, L&T Finance, Reliance Industries, Wipro, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank etc.

On the global data front, investors would be eyeing few economic data from world’s largest economy, United States (US), starting with Core Inflation data and Redbook YoY on January 13 following Producer Price Index data on January 14, Initial Jobless Claims, Export Prices and Import Prices on January 15, and Fed Balance Sheet, Industrial Production and Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count data on January 16.

Top Gainers 

  • Bharat Electronics up by 5.27% was the top gainer on Nifty for the week - Bharat Electronics gained investors’ attention after it secured additional orders worth Rs 596 crore. Major orders received include drone detection and jamming system, mobile communication terminal, software solution, upgrades, spares, services etc. Earlier, the company had secured additional orders worth Rs 569 crore.
  • ICICI Bank up by 4.96% was another top gainer on Nifty for the week - ICICI Bank traded higher ahead of release of its December quarter results of financial year 2025-26, scheduled on January 17. Besides, the bank has received approval from Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority to acquire 100% shareholding in ICICI Prudential Pension Funds Management Company (ICICI PFM) from ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company.

Top Losers 

  • Trent down by 7.55% was the top loser of the week on Nifty - Trent came under pressure as its third quarter performance failed to match investors’ expectations. The company has reported 17% rise in its standalone revenue at Rs 5,220 crore for Q3FY26 as compared to Rs 4,466 crore for same quarter last year. Besides, the company has opened 17 Westside store and 48 Zudio stores during the quarter.
  • ITC down by 7.34% was another top loser of the week on Nifty - Stock of ITC continued to face selling following the imposition of an additional excise duty on cigarettes and other tobacco products by the government of India, effective February 1. This duty will be over and above 40% GST. Besides, the broader markets were remained under pressure amid fears of additional US tariffs of Indian goods.

Technical viewpoints

During the week, CNX Nifty touched the highest level of 26,373.20 on January 5 and lowest level of 25,623.00 on January 9. On the last trading day, the Nifty closed at 25,683.30 with weekly loss of 645.25 points or 2.45 percent. For the coming week, 25,413.13 followed by 25,142.97 are likely to be good support levels for the Nifty, while the index may face resistance at 26,163.33 and further at 26,643.37 levels.

US Market

The U.S. markets traded higher during the week as the Labor Department said labor productivity soared by 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2025 after spiking by an upwardly revised 4.1 in the second quarter.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

U.S. wholesale inventories rise in line with estimates in October: Wholesale inventories rose by 0.2 percent in October after climbing by 0.5 percent in September. The uptick matched expectations.

Weekly jobless claims in U.S. rise in the week ended January 3rd: The Labor Department said initial jobless claims crept up to 208,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level of 200,000.

Factory orders in U.S. slump slightly more than expected in October: Factory orders slumped by 1.3 percent in October after rising by 0.2 percent in September. Street had expected factory orders to slide by 1.2 percent.

U.S. services PMI unexpectedly climbs to 54.4 in December: The ISM said its services PMI climbed to 54.4 in December from 52.6 in November, with a reading above 50 indicating growth. Street had expected the index to edge down to 52.3.

Trade deficit in U.S. shrinks to smallest in over 16 years in October: The trade deficit narrowed to $29.4 billion in October from a downwardly revised $48.1 billion in September.

European Market

European markets garnered some gains during the passing week, but the mood in the region remained cautious with investors following geopolitical developments.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Spain unemployment declines sharply: The labor ministry said that the number of registered unemployed decreased 16,291 from the previous month to 2.41 million in December.

French inflation at 7-month low: The consumer price index logged an annual increase of 0.8 percent in December, following November's 0.9 percent rise. This was the slowest rate since May. 

Eurozone private sector growth softens: The final survey data from S&P Global showed that the HCOB final composite output index dropped to 51.5 in December from November's 30-month high of 52.8. 

Eurozone inflation lowest in 4 months in December: The consumer price index rose 2.0 percent year-on-year following an increase of 2.1 percent in each of the previous two months. 

Eurozone unemployment rate drops in November: The data from Eurostat showed that the jobless rate fell to 6.3 percent from 6.4 percent in October. The rate was expected to remain unchanged at 6.4 percent.

Asian Market

Asian markets traded mostly in green during the passing week, as investors eyed U.S. jobs data and a U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs.

Some of the major developments during the week are: 

Japan's real wages fall in November: Japan's real wages dropped 2.8% in November 2025 from a year earlier, falling for the 11th straight month and at the fastest pace since last January.  

Japan Services PMI revises downward: Japan's S&P Global Services PMI eased to 51.6 in December 2025, below the preliminary estimate of 52.5 and November's reading of 53.2.

Japan Manufacturing PMI Revises upward: The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 50.0 in December 2025 from a preliminary estimate of 49.7 and a final reading of 48.7 in November. 

China's CPI accelerates in December: China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.8% year-over-year in December, the strongest reading since February 2023. The increase followed a 0.7% rise in November.  

China's PPI declines in December: China’s producer price index (PPI) fell 1.9% year-on-year in December 2025, easing from a 2.2% decline in November and extending the contraction to a 39th consecutive month.
  RELATED NEWS >>
Most Viewed >>
EXPLORE
© CITRUS INTERACTIVE
Designed & Developed Accord Fintech Pvt. Ltd.