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Markets likely to make gap-up opening amid hopes of India-US trade deal
Oct-23-2025

Indian equity markets are likely to make a gap-up opening on Thursday after returning from a midweek holiday on Wednesday and a special one-hour Mahurat Trading session on Tuesday. In the special Muhurat trading, markets ended slightly higher, marking a calm yet positive start to the new Samvat year. Today, traders are likely to remain optimistic amid hopes of U.S.-India trade deal, with reports suggesting that both countries are close to finalizing a long-awaited bilateral trade deal that could sharply lower tariffs on Indian exports to about 15-16 percent from the current average of 50 percent.

Some of the key factors to be watched:

India, EU discuss positive resolution of outstanding issues of trade deal: Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has said that he held a meeting with EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic to discuss outstanding issues related to the proposed trade pact.

Goyal to discuss ways to boost trade, investments with leaders, businesses of Germany: Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal will visit Berlin, Germany this week to meet government officials and businesses to discuss ways to boost trade and investments between the two countries.

RBI's gold reserves cross 880 metric tonnes by September: The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) gold reserves crossed 880 metric tonnes in the first half of 2025-26 with the central bank adding 0.2 metric tonnes in the last week of September.

Key infrastructure sectors' growth at 3% in September: Government data showed that India's eight key infrastructure sectors' output stood at 3 per cent in September, slower than the 6.5 per cent expansion recorded in August.

Coal stocks will be in Focus: India's coal import dropped by marginal 0.6 per cent to 20.58 million tonne in the month of August, over the year-ago period.

On the global front: The US markets ended in red on Wednesday amid renewed uncertainty about trade relations between the U.S. and China following the latest remarks from US President Donald Trump. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Thursday, following the broadly negative cues from Wall Street overnight.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks extended their northward journey for fourth consecutive session on the occasion of Diwali 2025. Markets made a gap-up opening and remained higher till end of the session driven by better-than-expected Q2 results from major companies and festival optimism. Markets remain closed on Wednesday on account of Diwali. However, a special one-hour Muhurat trading session between 1.45 pm to 2.45 pm was held on Tuesday where Sensex and Nifty ended marginally higher, marking the beginning of the new Samvat Year 2082 on a positive note amid firm global cues.  Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 62.97 points or 0.07% to 84,426.34 and the CNX Nifty was up by 25.45 points or 0.10% to 25,868.60.

Some of the important factors in trade:

India's exports to register positive growth in 2025-26: Sentiments got boost as Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal expressing confidence over India’s exports has said that despite global uncertainties due to the US tariffs, India's exports will register a positive growth in 2025-26.

India-EU trade deals talk later this month: Traders took note of report that Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal will visit Brussels later this month to give an impetus to the ongoing negotiations for a free trade agreement between India and the European Union (EU).

Auto stocks in focus: The industry body Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers’ (SIAM) data has showed a 26% Y-o-Y growth in India’s Automobile exports to 16,85,761 units for the September quarter driven by highest-ever shipments of passenger vehicles, two-wheelers and three-wheelers during the period.

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