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Benchmarks snap 4-week losing streak on broad-based buying
Oct-03-2025

Indian markets snapped four-week losing streak and ended higher in the passing week on broad-based buying after recent sell-off. The RBI’s much expected status quo on interest rate, upward revision in GDP growth estimates for FY26 and lowering inflation forecast, boost sentiments in the markets. Also, RBI eased rules for lending to capital markets and large companies. 

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Industrial output growth slows to 4.0% in August: India’s industrial output growth, measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), slowed to 4.0 per cent in the month of August 2025 as against a revised growth rate of 4.3 per cent in July 2025, due to slowdown in manufacturing sector.

India's manufacturing PMI eases in September: HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) eased to 57.7 in September from 59.3 in August as new orders, output and input buying all rose at the slowest rates since May, while job creation retreated to a one-year low.

RBI keeps policy rate unchanged for second consecutive time: The MPC under the Reserve Bank of India at its fourth bi-monthly monetary policy of the current fiscal (FY26) kept its policy interest rate unchanged at 5.5 per cent for the second consecutive time, citing concerns over tariff uncertainties.

Gross GST collections jump 9.1% to Rs 1.89 lakh core in September: The government data has showed that total Gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections jumped 9.1% to Rs 1,89,017 crore (Rs 1.89 lakh core) in the month of September 2025 as compared to Rs 1,73,240 crore in the same month a year ago.

India's external debt rises to $747.2 billion at end of June 2025: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its latest data has showed that India's external debt stood at $747.2 billion at the end of June 2025, an increase of $11.2 billion over its level at March-end 2025.

BSE movement for the week

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex surged 780.71 points or 0.97% to 81,207.17 during the week ended October 03, 2025. The BSE Midcap index gained 930.85 points or 2.08% to 45,678.11 and Smallcap index surged 1093.64 points or 2.09% to 53,374.98. On the sectoral front, S&P BSE Metal was up by 1,288.89 points or 3.93% to 34,048.62, S&P BSE PSU was up by 575.86 points or 2.97% to 19,985.19, S&P BSE Oil & Gas was up by 660.79 points or 2.50% to 27,093.84, S&P BSE BANKEX was up by 1,342.85 points or 2.19% to 62,741.11 and S&P BSE Finance was up by 252.59 points or 2.05% to 12,556.39 were the top gainers, while there were no losers on the BSE.

NSE movement for the week

The Nifty surged 239.55 points or 0.97% to 24,894.25. On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), Bank Nifty was up by 1199.90 points or 2.21% to 55,589.25, Nifty Mid Cap 100 increased 1124.80 points or 2.00% to 57,503.35, Nifty Next 50 gained 1210.95 points or 1.80% to 68,355.90 and Nifty IT was up by 247.75 points or 0.74% to 33,949.75.

FII transactions during the week

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in equity segment in the week, with gross purchases of Rs 63,323.80 crore and gross sales of Rs 73,500.27 crore, leading to a net outflow of Rs 10,176.47 crore. They also stood as net buyers in the debt segment with gross purchases of Rs 13,494.22 crore against gross sales of Rs 11,329.94 crore, resulting in a net inflow of Rs 2,164.28 crore. In hybrid segment, FIIs stood as net buyers, with gross purchases of Rs 418.71 crore and gross sales of Rs 148.83 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 269.88 crore.

Industry and Economy

Moody’s has affirmed India’s long-term local and foreign-currency issuer ratings and the local-currency senior unsecured rating at ‘Baa3’ with a ‘stable’ outlook on the back of robust economic growth and sound external position. It also affirmed India’s other short-term local-currency rating at P-3. It said ‘The rating affirmation and stable outlook reflect our view that India’s prevailing credit strengths, including its large, fast-growing economy, sound external position, and stable domestic financing base for ongoing fiscal deficits will be sustained’. It added these strengths lend resilience to adverse external trends, in particular as high US (Aa1 stable) tariffs and other international policy measures hinder India’s capacity to attract manufacturing investment. 

Outlook for the coming week

Indian markets ended higher with gains of around a percent each in the passing week after the RBI left key interest rates unchanged and revised upward its growth estimates for the current fiscal to 6.8%.

The coming week will mark the start of Q2FY26 earnings season, with IT bellwether TCS reporting its numbers on October 9. On the economic data front, market participants will be eying HSBC Composite PMI and HSBC Services PMI data to be out on October 06. Besides, Bank Loan Growth, Deposit Growth and Foreign Exchange Reserves data are scheduled to be released on October 10.

In the primary market, Tata Capital and LG Electronics are coming with an IPO to raise up to Rs 15,512 crore and Rs 11,607.01 crore, respectively. Moreover, meetings to discuss the budget for 2026-27 will start on October 9, 2025, and will last until mid-November.

On the global front, investors would be eyeing few economic data from world’s largest economy, United States (US), starting with Balance of Trade and Redbook data on October 07, followed by API Crude Oil Stock and EIA Crude Oil Stocks on October 08, FOMC Minutes and Initial Jobless Claims on October 09, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Baker Hughes Oil Rig data on October 10.

Top Gainers 

  • Hindalco Industries up by 5.30% was the top gainer on Nifty for the week - Hindalco Industries reportedly increased ingot prices by Rs 3,000/t ($34/t) on September 30 to Rs 270,250/t ($3,044/t). Besides, its subsidiary - Novelis Inc finalised financing arrangement involving issue of $100 million municipal bonds, while simultaneously amending existing term loan facility. The development is part of the group’s broader plan to strengthen liquidity.
  • Tata Motors up by 4.85% was another top gainer on Nifty for the week - Tata Motors reported monthly passenger vehicle sales of 60,907 units in September 2025, a Y-o-Y increase of 47%, due to GST rate cut and higher demand during Navratri festival. The company reported vehicle wholesales of 41,313 units in September 2024. In the domestic market, its dispatches to dealers rose 45% to 59,667 units against 41,063 units in the year-ago period.

Top Losers 

  • Max Healthcare Institute down by 5.65% was the top loser of the week on Nifty - Max Healthcare witnessed selling pressure after Tata AIG Insurance reportedly suspended its cashless claim settlement facility with Max Hospitals. As per a private report, Tata AIG Insurance is the third insurer after Star Health and Niva Bupa, to suspend the facility with Max Hospitals. Meanwhile, Max Healthcare has entered the NIFTY50 index. 
  • Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) down by 4.40% was another top loser of the week on Nifty - TCS came under pressure ahead of its Q2FY26 result to be out on October 09, 2025. Meanwhile, IT stocks continued to remain under pressure amid H-1B visa fee concerns and weak guidance from IT services and consulting company Accenture.

Technical viewpoints

During the week, CNX Nifty touched the highest level of 24,904.80 on October 3 and lowest level of 24,587.70 on September 30. On the last trading day, the Nifty closed at 24,894.25 with weekly gain of 239.55 points or 0.97 percent. For the coming week, 24,686.37 followed by 24,478.48 are likely to be good support levels for the Nifty, while the index may face resistance at 25,003.47 and further at 25,112.68 levels.

US Market

The U.S. markets traded higher during the week after the Conference Board said its consumer confidence index slid to 94.2 in September from an upwardly revised 97.8 in August. Street had expected the consumer confidence index to dip to 96.0.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

U.S. manufacturing index inches higher in September: The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.1 in September from 48.7 in August, although a reading below 50 still indicates contraction. 

Private sector employment in U.S. decreases in September: ADP said private sector employment fell by 32,000 jobs in September after dipping by a revised 3,000 jobs in August.

U.S. pending home sales surge much more than expected in August: The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index spiked by 4.0 percent to 74.7 in August after falling by 0.3 percent to a revised 71.8 in July.

Chicago business barometer unexpectedly edges lower in September: MNI Indicators said its Chicago business barometer edged down to 40.6 in September after falling to 41.5 in August, with a reading below 50 indicating contraction. 

U.S. job openings rise in August: The Labor Department said job openings rose to 7.227 million in August from an upwardly revised 7.208 million in July.

European Market

European markets witnessed gaining rally during the passing week, as optimism over monetary easing by the Federal Reserve in the coming months, hopes around artificial intelligence, helped outweigh concerns about a partial U.S. government shutdown.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Spain unemployment declines in September: The data from the labor ministry showed that the number of people out of work decreased 4,846 in September from the previous month. 

Swiss GDP growth rev up to 0.2% in the second quarter: Gross domestic product grew 0.2 percent sequentially, which was revised up from 0.1 percent estimated previously. This followed a quarterly growth of 0.8 percent in the first quarter.

Hungary trade surplus grows in August: The trade surplus rose to EUR 557 million in August from EUR 294 million in the corresponding month last year. In July, the trade balance showed a surplus of EUR 452 million.

Eurozone manufacturing activity slips back into contraction: The final purchasing managers' survey data compiled by S&P Global showed that the HCOB manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 49.8 in September from 50.7 in August. 

Eurozone inflation accelerates in September: Inflation rose to 2.2 percent in September, in line with forecast, from 2.0 percent in August. A similar higher rate was last seen in April.

Asian Market

Asian markets, barring Nikkei, traded higher during the week even as concerns about a U.S. government shutdown and potential federal job cuts offset excitement around AI as well as expectations of further interest-rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.   

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Japan consumer confidence rises to 9-month high: Japan's consumer sentiment improved more than expected in September to highest level in nine months. The seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index rose to 35.3 in September from 34.9 in August.

Japan manufacturing sector sinks deeper into contraction: The manufacturing sector in Japan continued to contract in September, and at a faster pace, with a manufacturing PMI score of 48.5. That's down from 49.7 in August.

China manufacturing activity picks up in September: China's official manufacturing PMI came in at 49.8 in September, up from 49.4 and rebounding to a six-month high while the non-manufacturing PMI disappointed by falling back to neutral levels. 

South Korea inflation rises in September: South Korea’s consumer prices rose 2.1% year-on-year in September 2025, picking up from a 1.7% increase in August and surpassing market expectations of 2%.

South Korea export growth hits 14-month high: Exports from South Korea surged 12.7% year-on-year to a record high of $65.95 billion in September 2025, sharply accelerating from a downwardly revised 1.2% increase in the previous month.
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