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Benchmarks likely to make cautious start ahead of weekly F&O expiry
Sep-16-2025

Indian equity markets are likely to make cautious start on Tuesday, ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy outcome and weekly F&O expiry. Market participants are likely to remain cautious after Peter Navarro, Donald Trump's trade adviser, has stepped up his attack on India for its trade policies and oil purchases from Russia. Further, some volatility may come as foreign investors offloaded shares worth Rs 1,268.59 crore on a net basis on Monday.

Some of the key factors to be watched:

India’s unemployment rate dips for second month to 5.1% in August: The government data showed that the India’s unemployment rate for persons aged 15 years and above declined for the second month in a row in August, to 5.1 per cent.

Exports rise 6.7% to $35.1 billion in August: The government data showed that India's exports rose 6.7 per cent to $35.1 billion in August annually, while imports declined 10.12 per cent to $61.59 billion.

Agriculture sector clocked world's highest growth at 3.7% in Q1: India's agriculture sector recorded a growth rate of 3.7 per cent during the first quarter of 2025-26, the highest globally. The sector's performance marks a significant rebound from the 1.5 per cent growth registered in the corresponding period last year.

Govt to identify 100 products to reduce import dependence: Secretary in the Ministry of Commerce and Industry Sunil Barthwal said 100 products have been identified with an objective to reduce import dependence via capacity building or better utilisation of existing facilities.

Increased adoption of AI can add $500-600 billion to GDP by 2035: NITI Aayog in its report has said that accelerated adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) across industries can contribute $500 to $600 billion to India's GDP by 2035 on the back of increased productivity and efficiency in the workforce.

On the global front: The US markets ended in green on Monday, following positive comments from US President Donald Trump about trade talks between top U.S. and Chinese officials in Europe. Asian markets are trading mixed on Tuesday, ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement due later this week.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks witnessed volatility throughout the day and finally ended marginally lower on Monday as investors remained cautious ahead of the Fed policy meeting, with the IT index witnessing profit-booking after last week's rally. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 118.96 points or 0.15% to 81,785.74 and the CNX Nifty was down by 44.80 points or 0.18% to 25,069.20.

Some of the important factors in trade:

India’s reliance on US tech poses economic vulnerability amid geopolitical tensions: Think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has cautioned about India’s reliance on US software, cloud services, and social media platforms and said that this poses a major economic and security vulnerability in times of geopolitical tensions. 

WPI Inflation positive at 0.52% in August: The government data showed wholesale price inflation (WPI) returned to the positive zone after two months at 0.52 per cent in August, as prices of food articles and manufactured items inched up. WPI-based inflation was (-) 0.58 and (-) 0.19 per cent in July and June, respectively. It was 1.25 per cent in August last year.

FIIs turn net buyers: According to exchange data, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers of Indian equities, purchasing securities worth Rs 129.58 crore on September 12. Domestic institutional investors also purchased equities worth Rs 1,556.02 crore.
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