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Markets end higher in passing week amid renewed optimism over India-US trade talks
Sep-12-2025

Indian equity markets ended higher in the passing week with gains around one and half a percent each amid renewed optimism over the resumption of India-US trade talks. The US Fed rate cut hopes also supported investors’ sentiments. Weaker than expected U.S. consumer price inflation and producer price inflation have reinforced expectations of Fed rate cut at next week's meeting. 

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Fitch Ratings raises India’s GDP growth forecast for FY26: Fitch Ratings in its Global Economic Outlook (GEO)-September has raised India’s GDP growth forecast to 6.9 per cent for current fiscal year (FY26), from 6.5 per cent earlier, citing strong June quarter growth and domestic consumption-led demand.

Total vehicle retail sales in India grow in August: Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations has said that total vehicle retail sales in India grew by a modest 2.84% at 19,64,547 units in August 2025 as against 19,10,312 units in August 2024, as customers postponed purchases ahead of GST reforms.

GST rationalisation likely to bring down cement prices by Rs 30-35 per 50 kg bag: India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) in its latest report has said that GST rationalisation is likely to bring down the prices of cement by Rs 30-35 per 50 kg bag and lower the cost of construction.

India's outward FDI falls 38% in August 2025: The RBI data report has showed that India’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) commitments declined 38.44% to $2097.74 million in August 2025, from $3,407.45 million in August 2024. Sequentially, they declined from $4,075.78 million in July 2025.

Trade pact with EU to provide opportunities for auto industry: Special Secretary in Department of Commerce Rajesh Agrawal said proposed trade pact with the EU will provide huge opportunities for auto industry to boost exports and forge new partnerships with leading automobile giants from 27-nation bloc.

BSE movement for the week

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex surged 1193.94 points or 1.48% to 81,904.70 during the week ended September 12, 2025. The BSE Midcap index gained 724.53 points or 1.59% to 46,184.30 and Smallcap index surged 796.18 points or 1.51% to 53,548.49. On the sectoral front, S&P BSE Capital Goods was up by 2,839.21 points or 4.25% to 69,691.79, S&P BSE Information Technology was up by 1,424.96 points or 4.19% to 35,474.06, S&P BSE TECK was up by 543.10 points or 3.22% to 17,393.56, S&P BSE PSU was up by 527.18 points or 2.82% to 19,253.02 and S&P BSE Power was up by 148.55 points or 2.27% to 6,690.29 were the top gainers, while S&P BSE Consumer Durables was down by 744.65 points or 1.19% to 61654.80 was the only loser on the BSE sectoral front.

NSE movement for the week

The Nifty surged 373.00 points or 1.51% to 25,114.00. On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), Nifty IT was up by 1474.90 points or 4.26% to 36,110.75, Nifty Mid Cap 100 increased 1152.00 points or 2.02% to 58,227.20, Nifty Next 50 gained 1104.20 points or 1.65% to 68,194.00 and Bank Nifty was up by 694.75 points or 1.28% to 54,809.30.

FII transactions during the week

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in equity segment in the week, with gross purchases of Rs 73,656.33 crore and gross sales of Rs 72,181.02 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 1,475.31 crore. They also stood as net sellers in the debt segment with gross purchases of Rs 9,513.34 crore against gross sales of Rs 10,078.64 crore, resulting in a net outflow of Rs 565.30 crore. In hybrid segment, FIIs stood as net sellers, with gross purchases of Rs 133.74 crore and gross sales of Rs 172.94 crore, leading to a net outflow of Rs 39.20 crore.

Industry and Economy

Moody's Ratings in its latest report has said the GST reform that has lowered tax rates on 375 items is another form of fiscal policy support for households and will stimulate consumption. It also pointed out that the reforms will reduce government revenues. It noted a decline in India's effective GST rates will likely boost private consumption and support economic growth at a time that the country faces external pressures from higher US tariffs. It said The GST reform is another form of fiscal policy support for households, complementing the higher income tax thresholds introduced in February that effectively exempted many middle-income households from paying income taxes and lowered income tax payments for others. 

Outlook for the coming week

Indian markets ended in green for yet another week as US President Donald Trump softened his stance toward India, signaling renewed optimism on trade negotiations.

In economic releases, traders will be eyeing the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data, slated to be released on September 15, Balance of Trade data also going to be out on September 15. Foreign Exchange Reserves data scheduled to be released on September 19.

On the global front, investors would be eyeing few economic data from world’s largest economy, United States (US), starting with NY Empire State Manufacturing Index on September 15 following Redbook YoY, Industrial Production, Retail Sales data on September 16, Building Permits Prel, Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Economic Projections on September 17, Fed Press Conference, Initial Jobless Claims September 18, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count on September 19.

Top Gainers 

  • Shriram Finance up by 8.03% was the top gainer on Nifty for the week - Stocks of non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) continued to remain on buyers’ radar after the government’s GST rate cuts on several items boosting local demand. Meanwhile, ICRA said that NBFCs, excluding infrastructure-focused entities, are projected to grow at a faster pace of 15-17%, supported by stronger economic activity and recent policy measures.
  • Bajaj Finance up by 7.33% was another top gainer on Nifty for the week - NBFCs stocks witnessed value buying. There are expectations that GST cuts are likely to propel customer demand, which is driving hopes of a better bottom and top line of the companies in next year. Meanwhile, Bajaj Finance allotted secured redeemable NCDs aggregating to Rs 1,350 crore on a private placement basis. 

Top Losers 

  • Trent down by 7.22% was the top loser of the week on Nifty - Stock witnessed some profit booking after recent rally following GST reforms announcement. Meanwhile, Westside, a retail brand owned and operated by Trent, has launched Young New Gamechanger (YNG) program, an inspiring initiative designed to celebrate and nurture India’s next generation of fashion creators. 
  • Titan Company down by 3.23% was another top loser of the week on Nifty - Titan Company traded lower despite its multi-brand watch retail chain - Helios is reportedly planning to double its revenue in the next three years to Rs 2,000 crore, banking on premium category products. This festive season, Helios is planning to drive sales with its product portfolio featuring about 14 international brands.

Technical viewpoints

During the week, CNX Nifty touched the highest level of 25,139.45 on September 12 and lowest level of 24,621.60 on September 8. On the last trading day, the Nifty closed at 25,114.00 with weekly gain of 373.00 points or 1.51 percent. For the coming week, 24,777.25 followed by 24,440.50 are likely to be good support levels for the Nifty, while the index may face resistance at 25,295.10 and further at 25,476.20 levels.

US Market

The U.S. markets traded higher during the week as traders anticipated that the latest reading of a key consumer inflation gauge won’t stand in the way of the Federal Reserve lowering its benchmark interest rate next week. 

Some of the major developments during the week are:

U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly climb to nearly four-year high: Initial jobless claims climbed to 263,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week's revised level of 236,000. Street had expected jobless claims to edge down to 235,000.

Consumer prices in U.S. climb 0.4% in August: The Labor Department said its consumer price index climbed by 0.4 percent in August after inching up by 0.2 percent in July. Street had expected consumer prices to rise by 0.3 percent.

U.S. wholesale inventories inch up 0.1% in July: Wholesale inventories crept up by 0.1 percent in July after rising by an upwardly revised 0.2 percent in June. Street had expected wholesale inventories to rise by 0.2 percent.

Producer prices in U.S. unexpectedly edge slightly lower in August: The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand edged down by 0.1 percent in August after climbing by a downwardly revised 0.7 percent in July.

U.S. small business optimism improves in August: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.5 points to 100.8 in August. Street were looking for a higher score of 101. The latest reading is about 3 points above the 52-year average of 98.

European Market

European markets gained good ground in positive territory during the passing week, amid sustained buying support. Investors digested the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to hold rates.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

ECB holds rate steady as expected: The Governing Council, led by ECB President Christine Lagarde, held the deposit rate steady at 2.00 percent. The refinancing rate was left unchanged at 2.15 percent and the marginal lending rate at 2.40 percent.

Italy industrial output unexpectedly rises 0.4%: The statistical office ISTAT reported that industrial output advanced 0.4 percent month-on-month in July, following a 0.2 percent rebound in June. 

Spain industrial output growth accelerates: The statistical office INE said that industrial production increased 2.5 percent year-on-year in July, stronger than the 1.9 percent rise in June.

Denmark inflation eases to 2.0%: The data from Statistics Denmark showed that the consumer price index climbed 2.0 percent year-over-year in August, following a 2.3 percent rise in July, which was the highest inflation since August 2023.

French industrial output falls most in 3 months: The statistical office INSEE reported that industrial production logged a monthly fall of 1.1 percent in July, partially offsetting the 3.7 percent rise in June.

Asian Market

Asian markets traded higher during passing week as weaker than expected U.S. consumer price inflation and producer price inflation data as well as recent downbeat monthly jobs data have reinforced expectations of a US Fed rate cut at next week's meeting.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Japan producer prices slid 0.2o% in August: Producer prices in Japan were down 0.2% on month in August. That missed expectations for a decline of 0.1% and down from the upwardly revised 0.3% gain in July.

Japan wholesale inflation rises in August: Japanese wholesale inflation rose 2.7% year-on-year in August, driven by persistent increases in food costs. The figure matched market forecasts and marked an acceleration from revised 2.5% gain in July.  

Japan’s business sentiment turns positive in Q3: Japan's business sentiment for large companies improved to plus 4.7 in Q3, up from minus 1.9 in April-June quarter, marking a positive turnaround for the first time in a year.

China's export growth slows in August: Customs data showed China's export growth slowed to a 6-month low of 4.4% in August, missing forecasts, while import growth was also sluggish at 1.3%.

China’s consumer prices fall more than expected in August: China’s consumer price index (CPI) inflation shrank 0.4% year-on-year in August. This compared to expectations for a fall of 0.2% and a flat reading from the prior month.
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