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Markets end lower for third straight week ahead of outcome of US-India trade talks
Jul-18-2025

Indian equity benchmarks ended lower for third straight week as investors remained in a wait-and-watch mode ahead of the outcome of the US-India trade talks. However, downside remained capped amid easing domestic retail inflation which could provide the RBI room to maintain status quo in repo rate in its upcoming reviews. 

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Net direct tax collection falls 1.34% till July 10 of FY26: The government data has showed that net direct tax collection fell 1.34 per cent to about Rs 5.63 lakh crore between April 1 to July 10 of FY26, over Rs 5.70 lakh crore collected in the year-ago period on account of higher refunds. 

CPI cools down in June on subdued prices of food items: Continuing its easing trend for the eighth straight month, India's retail inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), came down to 2.10 per cent in June 2025 from 2.82 per cent in May 2025 mainly due to subdued prices of food items.

India's WPI inflation turns negative in June: Inflation based on wholesale price index (WPI) in India dropped to (-) 0.13% in the month of June, from 0.39% in May 2025, due to decrease in prices of electricity, mineral oils, coal, crude petroleum & natural gas etc. It was 0.85% in April 2025. 

India's merchandise exports remain flat in June: The commerce ministry data showed that India's merchandise exports remained almost flat at $35.14 billion in June 2025 as against $35.16 billion same month last year. Imports declined 3.71% to $53.92 billion in June 2025 over $56 billion in June 2024. 

India's outward FDI jumps in June: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) report has showed that outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) by domestic firms has seen a jump of 73.77% to $5,030.48 million in June 2025 as against $2,894.90 million in June 2024. In May 2025, they stood at $2,702.92 million.

BSE movement for the week

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex slipped 742.74 points or 0.90% to 81,757.73 during the week ended July 18, 2025. The BSE Midcap index gained 484.57 points or 1.05% to 46,775.77 and Smallcap index surged 800.68 points or 1.47% to 55,285.44. On the sectoral front, S&P BSE Realty was up by 276.51 points or 3.70% to 7,758.61, S&P BSE Healthcare was up by 798.57 points or 1.80% to 45,128.54 and S&P BSE Auto was up by 913.91 points or 1.74% to 53,475.69 were the top gainers on the BSE sectoral front, while S&P BSE BANKEX was down by 857.38 points or 1.35% to 62,741.65, S&P BSE Information Technology was down by 473.98 points or 1.28% to 36,554.45 and S&P BSE TECK was down by 226.38 points or 1.25% to 17,865.22, were the top losers on the BSE sectoral front.

NSE movement for the week

The Nifty slipped 181.45 points or 0.72% to 24,968.40. On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), Bank Nifty was down by 471.70 points or 0.83% to 56,283.00, Nifty IT was down by 551.40 points or 1.46% to 37,141.85. On the other side, Nifty Mid Cap 100 was up by 462.30 points or 0.79% to 59,104.50 and Nifty Next 50 was up by 259.60 points or 0.38% to 68,225.15. 

FII transactions during the week

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in equity segment in the week, with gross purchases of Rs 68,325.29 crore and gross sales of Rs 77,687.96 crore, leading to a net outflow of Rs 9,362.67 crore. They also stood as net buyers in the debt segment with gross purchases of Rs 7,789.12 crore against gross sales of Rs 5,115.34 crore, resulting in a net inflow of Rs 2,673.78 crore. In hybrid segment, FIIs stood as net sellers, with gross purchases of Rs 147.39 crore and gross sales of Rs 156.83 crore, leading to a net outflow of Rs 9.44 crore.

Industry and Economy

Expressing an optimism over India’s economic growth prospects, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) Chairman S Mahendra Dev has said that the Indian economy is likely to grow at 6.5 per cent in the current financial year (FY26), despite geo-political tensions and trade policy uncertainties. He further said that domestic growth will be driven by low inflation, resulting from good monsoon and benign interest rate regime, triggered by three back-to-back rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India. He noted that there are significant global headwinds like the twin shocks of geo-political tensions and trade policy uncertainties. But the Indian economy is resilient and continues to be the fastest growing country among large economies. 

Outlook for the coming week

Indian equity markets ended lower for third consecutive week as there was lot of uncertainties looming around the India- US trade policy.

On the economy front, investors will be eyeing the data of Infrastructure Output, scheduled to be release on July 21. HSBC Composite PMI Flash, HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash, HSBC Services PMI Flash going to be out on July 24. 

Traders will also be eyeing lots of important earnings announcements scheduled for the week, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, UltraTech Cement, Coforge, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Infosys, Bajaj Finance, Nestle India, Cipla, Kotak Mahindra Bank etc. 

The Monsoon Session of Parliament is scheduled to commence from July 21, 2025 and there will be a total of 21 sittings of both Houses till August 21, 2025.

On the global front, investors would be eyeing few economic data from world’s largest economy, United States (US), starting with Chicago Fed National Activity, Initial Jobless Claims, S&P Global Composite PMI Flash, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash, S&P Global Services PMI Flash on July 24, Fed Balance Sheet, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count on July 25.

Top Gainers 

  • Hindustan Unilever up by 3.37% was the top gainer on Nifty for the week - Hindustan Unilever remained on buyers’ radar for second straight week ahead of its Q1FY26 result to be out on July 31, 2025. It had reported 3.36% fall in consolidated net profit at Rs 2,475 crore for Q1FY25 over Rs 2,561 crore for Q1FY24. Recently, the company had announced that Priya Nair will become the first woman CEO and MD of the company effective August 1, 2025. 
  • Nestle India up by 2.95% was another top gainer on Nifty for the week - Nestle India witnessed buying ahead of its first quarter ended June 30, 2025 result to be out on July 24, 2025. Meanwhile, stocks of FMCG companies remained on buyers’ radar amid anticipations of stable consumer demand in Q1 after Godrej Consumer's quarterly business update. Godrej is the third company after Dabur and Marico to signal a stronger-than-expected growth outlook.

Top Losers 

  • HCL Technologies down by 6.91% was the top loser of the week on Nifty - HCL Technologies came under pressure on reporting weaker-than-expected numbers for Q1FY26. The company reported 9.74% fall in consolidated net profit at Rs 3,844 crore for Q1FY26 as compared to Rs 4,259 crore for Q1FY25. However, total income increased by 5.64% at Rs 30,805 crore for Q1FY26 as compared to Rs 29,160 crore for the corresponding quarter previous year.
  • Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) down by 5.68% was another top loser of the week on Nifty - TCS witnessed profit taking after it reported disappointing earnings for Q1FY26. It showed a quarter-on-quarter revenue decline, driven largely by the BSNL ramp-down and weakness in international business. However, it reported 5.90% rise in consolidated net profit at Rs 12,819 crore for Q1FY26 as compared to Rs 12,105 crore for the same quarter in the previous year.

Technical viewpoints

During the week, CNX Nifty touched the highest level of 25,322.45 on July 16 and lowest level of 24,918.65 on July 18. On the last trading day, the Nifty closed at 24,968.40 with weekly loss of 181.45 points or 0.72 percent. For the coming week, 24,817.22 followed by 24,666.03 are likely to be good support levels for the Nifty, while the index may face resistance at 25,221.02 and further at 25,473.63 levels.

US Market

The U.S. markets traded higher during the week after the Commerce Department said retail sales climbed by 0.6 percent in June after slumping by 0.9 percent in May. Street had expected retail sales to inch up by 0.1 percent.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

U.S. homebuilder confidence modestly improves in July: The NAHB/ Wells Fargo Housing Market Index inched up to 33 in July after slipping to 32 in June. The uptick matched street estimates.

Consumer prices in U.S. rise 0.3% in June: The U.S. consumer price index rose by 0.3 percent in June after inching up by 0.1 percent in May.

U.S. import prices inch up 0.1% in June: Import prices crept up by 0.1 percent in June after falling by a revised 0.4 percent in May. Street had expected import prices to rise by 0.3 percent.

Industrial production in U.S. climbs 0.3% in June: Industrial production climbed by 0.3 percent in June, while revised data showed industrial production was unchanged in May. Street had expected industrial production to inch up by 0.1 percent.

U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly edge lower: Initial jobless claims fell to 221,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level of 228,000. Street had expected jobless claims to rise to 235,000.

European Market

European markets rebounded during the passing week, as optimism over EU-US trade deal, and some encouraging earnings news helped underpin sentiment. 

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Eurozone industrial output recovers in May: The data from Eurostat showed that industrial output grew at a faster-than-expected pace of 1.7 percent on a monthly basis in May, in contrast to the 2.2 percent decrease in April. 

German economic sentiment strengthens in July: A monthly survey conducted by the think tank ZEW showed that the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment rose to 52.7 in July from 47.5 in the previous month. 

Eurozone trade surplus rises more than expected: The Eurostat reported that the trade surplus surged to EUR 16.2 billion in May from EUR 11.1 billion in April.

Eurozone inflation rises to 2% as estimated: The final data from Eurostat showed that annual inflation moved up to 2.0 percent in June from 1.9 percent in May. The rate came in line with the estimate published on July 1.

UK economy contracts for second straight month: The data from the Office for National Statistics revealed that gross domestic product fell unexpectedly by 0.1 percent in May, following a 0.3 percent drop in April. 

Asian Market

Asian Market, barring KLSE composite index, traded higher during passing week, as traders reacted to upbeat economic data from the U.S. and Japan that renewed optimism about the global economy. However, uncertainty over U.S. tariffs kept investors on edge.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Japan core machinery orders sink in May: The value of core machinery orders in Japan was down a seasonally adjusted 0.6% on month in May- coming in at 913.5 billion yen.

Japan's core CPI eases in June: Japan's core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, rose 3.3% year-on-year in June, marking a slowdown for the first time since February, following a 3.7% increase in the previous month.

Japan’s exports fall for second straight month: Japan’s exports were down 0.5% on year, missing forecasts for a gain of 0.5% after sinking 1.7% in the previous month.

Japan posts trade surplus in June: Japan posted a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus of 153.1 billion yen in June, shy of estimates for a surplus of 353.9 billion yen following the downwardly revised 638.6 billion yen deficit in May.

China’s economy grows in first half of 2025: China's economy posted a solid 5.3% growth year-on-year in the first half of 2025, defying gloomy forecasts even as ongoing trade tensions with the United States slowed momentum in the second quarter.
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