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Indian markets end lower in passing week amid uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policies
Jul-11-2025

Indian equity benchmarks ended passing week with over a percent cut mainly due to selling in last trading session of the week amid uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policies, as he continues to threaten elevated tariffs across various sectors and countries. Investors also stayed cautious ahead of a potential breakthrough in US-India trade talks.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Automobile retail sales in India rise 5% in June: Federation of Automotive Dealers Associations (FADA) has said that automobile retail sales in India rose around 5 per cent year-on-year in June 2025 with all vehicle segments, including passenger vehicles and two-wheelers, witnessing growth.

US extends suspension of reciprocal tariffs on India until August 1: US extended suspension of reciprocal tariffs on India until August 1, 2025, offering relief to Indian exporters and fostering ongoing trade negotiations. This extension allows both nations additional time to resolve outstanding issues.

National strategy on critical materials required to deal with rare magnet shortage: ACMA has sought a national strategy on critical materials to secure electric vehicle production in the country as shortage of rare earth magnets pose potential production losses to the industry.

Potential to increase India’s agriculture, fishery exports to Rs 20 lakh crore: Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has said food processing, better quality packaging, and branding can help increase the country's agriculture and fishery exports to Rs 20 lakh crore. 

Private asset reconstruction companies' AUM to decline in FY26: Domestic ratings agency Crisil has said that private asset reconstruction companies' AUM, measured in terms of security receipts, is set to decline by up to 6 per cent in FY26 to Rs 1.05 lakh crore as redemptions are outpacing acquisitions.

BSE movement for the week

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex slipped 932.42 points or 1.12% to 82,500.47 during the week ended July 11, 2025. The BSE Midcap index losses 523.14 points or 1.12% to 46,291.20, while Smallcap index slipped 345.58 points or 0.63% to 54,484.76. On the sectoral front, S&P BSE TECK was down by 747.81 points or 3.97% to 18,091.60, S&P BSE Information Technology was down by 1,288.64 points or 3.36% to 37,028.43, and S&P BSE Consumer Durables was down by 1,634.08 points or 2.67% to 59,491.08, S&P were the top losers, while S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods was up by 395.61 points or 1.96% to 20,571.44 and S&P BSE Power was up by 42.63 points or 0.62% to 6,890.22 were the few gainers on the BSE.

NSE movement for the week

The Nifty slipped 311.15 points or 1.22% to 25,149.85. On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), Nifty IT was down by 1473.30 points or 3.76% to 37,693.25, Nifty Mid Cap 100 decreased 1035.55 points or 1.74% to 58,642.20, Nifty Next 50 lost 642.25 points or 0.94% to 67,965.55 and Bank Nifty was down by 277.20 points or 0.49% to 56,754.70.  

FII transactions during the week

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in equity segment in the week, with gross purchases of Rs 47,137.10 crore and gross sales of Rs 42,717.51 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 4,419.59 crore. They also stood as net sellers in the debt segment with gross purchases of Rs 4,064.38 crore against gross sales of Rs 6,329.69 crore, resulting in a net outflow of Rs 2,265.31 crore. In hybrid segment, FIIs stood as net buyers, with gross purchases of Rs 71.62 crore and gross sales of Rs 71.24 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 0.38 crore. (Provisional)

Industry and Economy

In order to achieve the government's vision of Viksit Bharat by 2047, the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) President Rajiv Memani has said India needs an average nominal Gross Domestic Procut (GDP) growth rate of 10% annually. Nominal GDP is the total value of goods and services produced in a country, measured using current market prices, without adjusting for inflation, unlike real GDP. The president observed that the interim trade pact between India and the US, expected to be finalised shortly, will remove the cloud of ‘uncertainty’, providing access to a bigger market for Indian firms, especially in labour-intensive sectors. The trade pact between the two nations will also pave the way for technology transfers, more joint ventures and partnerships. 

Outlook for the coming week

In the passing week, Indian equity markets ended with cut of over one percent amid uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policies, as he continues to threaten elevated tariffs across various sectors and countries. 

On the economy front, market-participants would be eyeing the data of Wholesale Price Index (WPI), which is schedule to be released on July 14. On the same day, consumer price index (CPI) data also going to be out. Balance of Trade data schedule to be released on July 15. Foreign Exchange Reserves data, Deposit Growth, Foreign Exchange Reserves will be announced on July 18. 

Traders will also be eyeing lots of important earnings announcements scheduled for the week, HCL Technologies, L&T Technology Services, Tech Mahindra, Axis Bank, LTIMindtree, Wipro, JSW Steel, L&T Finance, Mastek, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank etc. 

On the global front, investors would be eyeing few economic data from world’s largest economy, United States (US), starting with Core Inflation data, Redbook YoY, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index on July 15, Producer Price Inflation, Industrial Production on July 16, Imports and exports, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index on July 17, Fed Balance Sheet, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count on July 18.

Top Gainers 

  • Hindustan Unilever up by 8.91% was the top gainer on Nifty for the week - Hindustan Unilever traded with traction as investors cheer appointment of Priya Nair as CEO and MD. The company announced that Priya Nair will become the first woman CEO and MD of the company effective August 1, 2025. Meanwhile, stocks of FMCG companies traded higher amid anticipations of stable consumer demand in Q1 after Godrej Consumer's quarterly business update. 
  • Kotak Mahindra Bank up by 4.42% was another top gainer on Nifty for the week - Kotak Mahindra Bank has reported 14.60% rise in total deposits (EOP) to Rs 5,12,838 crore (Provisional) as of June 30, 2025 (Q1FY26) over Rs 4,47,418 crore as of June 30, 2024. Its net advances (EOP) were up by 14% to Rs 4,44,731 crore (Provisional) in Q1FY26 over Rs 3,89,957 crore as of June 30, 2024. CASA (EOP) stood at Rs 2,09,645 crore (Provisional) as of June 30, 2025.

Top Losers 

  • Trent down by 13.36% was the top loser of the week on Nifty - Trent remained under pressure as a private brokerage firm downgraded the stock after its AGM, where the company indicated that its fashion segment is likely to grow about 20% in Q1FY26, considerably lower than its five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% over FY20-25. Meanwhile, the company’s standalone revenue for Q1FY26 was up 19.7% to Rs 5,061 crore over Rs 4,228 crore for Q1FY25.
  • Titan Company down by 8.62% was another top loser of the week on Nifty - Titan Company witnessed profit taking after it reported 20% year-on-year growth in its consumer businesses during Q1FY26. Its Jewellery domestic operations grew c.18% Y-o-Y in a quarter marked by gold price volatility affecting consumer sentiments. Watches domestic business clocked a strong quarter of c.23% YoY growth led by analog driven by both volume and value growth.

Technical viewpoints

During the week, CNX Nifty touched the highest level of 25,548.70 on July 9 and lowest level of 25,129.00 on July 11. On the last trading day, the Nifty closed at 25,149.85 with weekly loss of 311.15 points or 1.22 percent. For the coming week, 25,003.00 followed by 24,856.15 are likely to be good support levels for the Nifty, while the index may face resistance at 25,422.70 and further at 25,695.55 levels.

US Market

The U.S. markets traded mostly higher during week after Federal Reserve released the minutes of its June meeting, which revealed most participants generally agree central bank is well positioned to wait for more clarity on outlook for inflation. 

Some of the major developments during the week are:

U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly edge lower: Initial jobless claims dipped to 227,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level of 232,000. Street had expected jobless claims to inch up to 235,000.

Wholesale inventories in U.S. dip in line with estimates in May: Wholesale inventories fell by 0.3 percent in May after inching up by 0.1 percent in April. The pullback by inventories matched street expectations as well as the flash estimate.

U.S. small business confidence erodes slightly in June: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged down 0.2 percentage points to 98.6. Street had forecast a score of 98.7. The reading remained slightly above the 51-year average of 98.

Thirty-year bond auction attracts modestly below average demand: The Treasury Department announced the results of this month's auction of $22 billion worth of thirty-year bonds, revealing the sale attracted modestly below average demand.

U.S. house purchase mortgage applications highest in over 2 years: The number of mortgage applications grew 9.4 percent from the previous week when it they rose 2.7 percent. The latest weekly results were adjusted for the July 4th holiday.

European Market

European markets remained firmed during the passing week, as investors continued to focus on US-EU trade negotiations. Investors also looked ahead to the earnings season that is set to start next week.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

German industrial production rebounds in May: The Data released by Destatis showed that industrial production grew 1.2 percent in May from a month ago, confounding expectations for a decline of 0.6 percent.

Eurozone investor confidence strongest in more than 3 years: The survey data from the behavioral research institute Sentix showed that the investor confidence index advanced to 4.5 in July from 0.2 in June. 

German inflation weakest in 8 months: The final data from Destatis showed that consumer price inflation slowed to 2.0 percent in June, in line with flash estimate, from 2.1 percent in May.

French trade deficit largest in 8 months: The data from the customs office showed that the trade deficit rose to EUR 7.8 billion from EUR 7.7 billion in April.

Eurozone retail sales drop for first time in 5 months: The Eurostat reported that retail sales logged a monthly fall of 0.7 percent in May, reversing April's 0.3 percent increase.

Asian Market

Asian markets traded mostly higher during passing week, even as U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian goods, effective August 1, 2025, and warned of a blanket tariff of 15-20% on most trading partners that haven't got letters yet.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Japan real wages decline at fastest pace since 2023: Japan's real wages logged its biggest fall in 20 months in May. Inflation-adjusted real wages decreased 2.9% year-on-year in May, which was sharper than the 2.0% fall in April.

Japan M2 money stock jumps 0.9% in June: The M2 money stock was up 0.9% on year in June- coming in at 1,268.4 trillion yen. That topped expectations for an annual increase of 0.2% and was up from 0.6% in May.

China’s producer prices fall in June: China’s producer prices plunged 3.6% in June from a year earlier, marking its largest decline in nearly two years.

China’s consumer prices edge up in June: China’s consumer price index edged 0.1% higher in June from a year ago, returning to growth after four consecutive months of declines.

Bank of Korea keeps interest rate unchanged: The Bank of Korea held its base rate at 2.50%, following a 25-basis-point cut in May, maintaining a cautious stance over rising household debt and economic pressure from the US tariffs.
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