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Benchmarks end lower in passing week ahead of US reciprocal tariff deadline
Jul-04-2025

Indian equity benchmarks snapped 2-week gaining streak and ended lower in the passing week as investors stayed cautious ahead of the US reciprocal tariff deadline. Investors remained watchful of developments surrounding the potential US-India trade agreement, with the 90-day pause nearing its end. 

Some of the major developments during the week are:

India’s industrial output growth slows to 9-month low of 1.2% in May: With poor performance of manufacturing, mining and power sectors, India’s industrial output growth, measured in terms of the IIP, slowed to a nine-month low of 1.2% in May 2025 as against a revised growth of 2.6% in April 2025.

Fiscal deficit slips to 0.8% of full-year target at May-end: The Controller General of Accounts data showed that the central government's fiscal deficit for April and May 2025 of FY26 fell to Rs 13,163 crore, or just 0.8% of annual target, mainly due to whopping Rs 2.69 lakh crore dividend received from RBI.

India’s manufacturing activity rises in June: India's manufacturing sector witnessed a strong growth in the month of June, reaching a fourteen-month high with improved trends in output and new orders. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing PMI surged to 58.4 in June from 57.6 in May.

India’s gross GST collections grow 6.2% to over Rs 1.84 lakh crore in June: India’s gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections for the month of June stood at over Rs 1.84 lakh crore recording a 6.2 per cent growth over same period last year when the gross GST collections stood at Rs 1,73,813 crore.

India’s services sector hits 10-month high in June: India’s services sector gathered pace in June as output and new order intakes rose. The HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index grew to 60.4 in June from 58.8 in May. The HSBC India Composite PMI Output Index surged to 61.0 in June from 59.3 in May.

BSE movement for the week

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex slipped 626.01 points or 0.74% to 83,432.89 during the week ended July 04, 2025. The BSE Midcap index gained 273.09 points or 0.59% to 46,814.34 and Smallcap index surged 580.94 points or 1.07% to 54,830.34. On the sectoral front, S&P BSE Realty was down by 169.25 points or 2.20% to 7,540.28, S&P BSE BANKEX was down by 894.19 points or 1.39% to 63,661.83 and S&P BSE Power was down by 81.81 points or 1.18% to 6,847.59 were the top losers, while S&P BSE Consumer Durables was up by 1,591.39 points or 2.67% to 61,125.16, S&P BSE Healthcare was up by 880.96 points or 2.00% to 44,895.66 and S&P BSE Oil & Gas was up by 436.70 points or 1.56% to 28,356.53 were the top gainers.

NSE movement for the week

The Nifty slipped 176.80 points or 0.69% to 25,461.00. On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), Bank Nifty was down by 412.00 points or 0.72% to 57,031.90 and Nifty Next 50 lost 104.60 points or 0.15% to 68,607.80, while Nifty IT was up by 343.60 points or 0.89% to 39,166.55 and Nifty Mid Cap 100 increased 292.60 points or 0.49% to 59,677.75.  

FII transactions during the week

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in equity segment in the week, with gross purchases of Rs 79,920.59 crore and gross sales of Rs 75,666.35 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 4,254.24 crore. They also stood as net buyers in the debt segment with gross purchases of Rs 23,199.30 crore against gross sales of Rs 9,224.81 crore, resulting in a net inflow of Rs 13,974.49 crore. In hybrid segment, FIIs stood as net buyers, with gross purchases of Rs 109.15 crore and gross sales of Rs 95.46 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 13.69 crore.

Industry and Economy

Expressing optimism over India’s growth prospects, the newly appointed Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) President Rajiv Memani has said that the country’s economy is likely to grow 6.4-6.7 per cent during the current financial year (FY26) driven by strong domestic demand, even as geopolitical uncertainty poses downside risks. He made a strong case for simple three-tiered GST rate structure, with essential items attracting 5 per cent, luxury and sin goods at 28 per cent, and the remaining items in the 12-18 per cent bracket. Currently, GST is a four-tier tax structure with slabs at 5, 12, 18 and 28 per cent. Luxury and demerit goods are taxed at the highest bracket of 28 per cent, while packed food and essential items are in the lowest 5 per cent slab. 

Outlook for the coming week

In the passing week, Indian equity markets turned red as traders were cautious ahead of the deadline of July 9 set by the US President Donald Trump for reaching trade deals with its partner countries. 

On the economy front, market-participants would be eyeing the data of Foreign Exchange Reserves data, which is scheduled to be release on July 11.  The coming week, would also be important as investor’s brace for slew of earnings from Industry’s big-wigs such as Tata Consultancy Services, Avenue Supermarts, Tata Elxsi etc.

On the global front, investors will be eyeing macro-economic reports from world’s largest economy, United States, starting with Fed Balance Sheet, Consumer Inflation Expectations on July 08, FOMC Minutes on July 09, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims on July 10, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count on July 11.

Top Gainers 

  • Apollo Hospitals Enterprises up by 6.36% was the top gainer on Nifty for the week - Apollo Hospitals’ board approved the separate listing of omni-channel pharmacy and digital health businesses within 18-21 months, as part of a broader reorganisation to unlock value. Under proposed scheme, Apollo will demerge its omni-channel pharmacy and digital health operations - including its telehealth vertical and investment in Apollo HealthCo - into a new entity.
  • Asian Paints up by 5.87% was another top gainer on Nifty for the week - Asian Paints acquired balance 40% of equity share capital of White Teak for Rs 188 crore from promoters of White Teak. Accordingly, the company now holds 100% of equity share capital of White Teak, by virtue of which White Teak has become a wholly owned subsidiary. The acquisition would be a next step forward in the company’s foray of being a complete home decor solution provider.

Top Losers 

  • Trent down by 10.66% was the top loser of the week on Nifty - Trent came under pressure after coming out the standalone revenue for the June quarter (Q1). The company’s standalone revenue for Q1was up 19.7% to Rs 5,061 crore over Rs 4,228 crore for the corresponding June quarter a year ago. During the April-June period, Trent opened one store for Westside and 11 of its value offering format Zudio, which targets the affordable fast-fashion segment.
  • Tata Consumer Products down by 4.86% was another top loser of the week on Nifty - The stock witnessed profit taking after recent gains. It had said it will continue scouting for acquisition opportunities in market to amplify its play, while prioritising organic growth. Its director P B Balaji said ‘We always are in market. We have our antennas up, and if there is something sensible at right price, and it fits in well with our portfolio, we will do that.’

Technical viewpoints

During the week, CNX Nifty touched the highest level of 25,669.35 on June 30 and lowest level of 25,331.65 on July 4. On the last trading day, the Nifty closed at 25,461.00 with weekly loss of 176.80 points or 0.69 percent. For the coming week, 25,305.32 followed by 25,149.63 are likely to be good support levels for the Nifty, while the index may face resistance at 25,643.02 and further at 25,825.03 levels.

US Market

The U.S. markets traded higher during the week as Labor Department released a report showing an unexpected decrease by first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended June 28th.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly edge modestly lower: Initial jobless claims edged down to 233,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level of 237,000. Street had expected jobless claims to inch up to 240,000.

Factory orders in U.S. spike in line with estimates in May: Factory orders spiked by 8.2 percent in May after plunging by a revised 3.9 percent in April. The sharp increase matched street estimates.

U.S. trade deficit widens in May: Trade deficit climbed to $71.5 billion in May from a revised $60.3 billion in April. Street had expected trade deficit to increase to $71.0 billion from the $61.6 billion originally reported for previous month.

Private sector employment in U.S. unexpectedly decreases in June: ADP said private sector employment fell by 33,000 jobs in June after rising by a downwardly revised 29,000 jobs in May.

U.S. manufacturing index inches higher in June: The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing PMI crept up to 49.0 in June from 48.5 in May, although a reading below 50 still indicates contraction.

European Market

European markets managed to stage some recovery during the passing week, on selective buying as investors focused on trade negotiations and digested regional economic data. Receding concerns about the political situation in the UK also helped underpin sentiment.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Eurozone private sector expands more than estimated: The final survey results from S&P Global showed that the HCOB final composite output index advanced to 50.6 in June from 50.2 in May. 

UK service sector growth at 10-month high: The final purchasing managers' survey results from S&P Global showed that the services business activity index climbed to 52.8 in June from 50.9 in the previous month. 

Eurozone manufacturing sector contraction slows in June: The final survey data from S&P Global showed that the HCOB manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index posted 49.5 in June, up from 49.4 in May. 

Eurozone inflation hits ECB target: The flash estimate from Eurostat showed that annual inflation climbed to 2.0 percent in June from 1.9 percent in May. 

Eurozone jobless rate rises to 6.3%: The Eurostat reported that the jobless rate stood at a seasonally adjusted 6.3 percent in May, up slightly from 6.2 percent in April. 

Asian Market

Asian markets traded mostly higher during passing week as a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report helped ease investor concerns about a potential economic slowdown. Investors closely watch trade talks with the US ahead of Trump's July 9 tariff deadline. 

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Japan household spending climbs 4.7% in May: The average of household spending in Japan was up 4.7% on year in May- coming in at 316,085 yen. That beat forecasts for an increase of 1.3% following the 0.1% contraction in April.

Japan Large Manufacturing Index rises to 13: Large manufacturing in Japan accelerated slightly in the second quarter of 2025, the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan Survey of business sentiment showed with a diffusion index score of +13. 

Chinese services activity growth hit nine-month low in June: China's services activity expanded at the slowest pace in nine months in June. The Caixin services Purchasing Managers' Index registered 50.6 in June, down from 51.1 in May. 

China's manufacturing activity contracts for third straight month in June: China’s official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose marginally to 49.7 in June as compared with 49.5 in the previous month. PMI figure below 50 denotes contraction. 

South Korea’s inflation rises in June: South Korea’s consumer price index rose 2.2% year-on-year in June, slightly above expectations. This signalled persistent inflationary pressure following the Bank of Korea’s fourth policy rate cut.
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