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Benchmarks end higher for third straight week amid sustained foreign fund inflows
May-02-2025

Indian equity benchmarks ended higher for third straight week with gains of over a percent each amid sustained foreign fund inflows. Some support came as India's Minister of State for Commerce, Jitin Prasada, confirmed continuous dialogue with the U.S. on a bilateral trade deal. Optimistic economic data also added support to the markets. 

Some of the major developments during the week are:

India’s industrial growth picks up slightly to 3% in March: India’s industrial growth measured in Index of Industrial Production (IIP) picked up to 3.0 per cent in March 2025 from 2.7 per cent in the previous month with growth in manufacturing and electricity generation.

Direct tax collection grows 13.57% in FY25: The net direct tax collection for the financial year 2024-25 has grew by 13.57 per cent to over Rs 22.26 lakh crore. However, due to issuance of the highest-ever amount of refunds it has narrowly missed the target of Rs 22.37 crore set by the government.

GST collection reaches all-time high at Rs 2.37 lakh crore in April: The Gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection increased by 12% in April, reaching to an all-time high of Rs 2.37 lakh crore. According to the government data, total gross GST revenue was Rs 2.10 lakh crore in April of the current year.

India's exports of goods and services hit all-time high in FY25: India's exports of goods and services hit an all-time high of $825 billion in 2024-25, up by 6% over the previous year's $778.1 billion, driven by a record surge in shipments of services despite global trade headwinds.

India's manufacturing sector growth improves in April: India's manufacturing sector growth improved in April, with output increasing at the fastest pace since June 2024 on the back of another strong expansion in order books. The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI surged to 58.2 in April as against 58.1 in March.

BSE movement for the week

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex surged 1289.46 points or 1.63% to 80,501.99 during the week ended May 02, 2025. The BSE Midcap index gained 179.16 points or 0.42% to 42,707.87, while Smallcap index slipped 640.08 points or 1.33% to 47,365.54. On the sectoral front, S&P BSE Oil & Gas was up by 928.29 points or 3.61% to 26,675.00, S&P BSE Realty was up by 165.05 points or 2.48% to 6,826.23, and S&P BSE Capital Goods was up by 1,159.35 points or 1.88% to 62,668.31 were the top gainers, while S&P BSE Power was down by 105.70 points or 1.58% to 6,583.47, S&P BSE Consumer Durables was down by 495.19 points or 0.87% to 56,500.43, and S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods was down by 130.60 points or 0.64% to 20,408.52 were the top losers on the BSE.

NSE movement for the week

The Nifty surged 307.35 points or 1.28% to 24,346.70. On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), Nifty IT was up by 329.60 points or 0.93% to 35,891.85, Bank Nifty was up by 451.30 points or 0.83% to 55,115.35, Nifty Mid Cap 100 increased 134.90 points or 0.25% to 53,705.10 and Nifty Next 50 gained 114.85 points or 0.18% to 64,429.75.

FII transactions during the week

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in equity segment in the week, with gross purchases of Rs 46,091.11 crore and gross sales of Rs 36,189.86 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 9,901.25 crore. They also stood as net sellers in the debt segment with gross purchases of Rs 4,499.75 crore against gross sales of Rs 10,724.63 crore, resulting in a net outflow of Rs 6,224.88 crore. In hybrid segment, FIIs stood as net sellers, with gross purchases of Rs 72.58 crore and gross sales of Rs 79.05 crore, leading to a net outflow of Rs 6.47 crore. (Provisional)

Industry and Economy

Expressing an optimism over India’s growth prospects, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Mahlhotra has said that policy continuity and stability, financial stability, fiscal prudence and efficiency, thrust on infrastructure, renewed focus on manufacturing, demographic dividend, innovation, continued focus on Ease of Doing Business and reforms, digitalisation are among factors that will push India’s growth trajectory over the medium to long-term. He said that the Indian economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience and dynamism. Over the past four years (2021-22 to 2024-25), it has recorded an average annual growth rate of 8.2 per cent. The central bank chief noted that ‘It was and continues to be the fastest-growing major economy in the world’.

Outlook for the coming week

In the passing week, Indian equity markets ended with gains of over one percent amid positive IIP data. India's industrial production growth accelerated to 3 per cent in March 2025 from 2.7 per cent in February. 

On the economy front, market-participants would be eyeing the data of HSBC Composite PMI Final, HSBC Services PMI Final, which scheduled to be released on May 06, Bank Loan Growth, Deposit Growth, Foreign Exchange Reserves data going to be out on May 09. 

In the ongoing result season, traders will be eyeing earnings of prominent companies, including Coforge, Mahindra and Mahindra, One 97 Communications, Dabur India, Escorts Kubota, Larsen and Toubro, Pidilite Industries, Titan Company. 

On the global front, investors would be eyeing few economic data from S&P Global Composite PMI Final, S&P Global Services PMI on May 05 followed by Balance of Trade, Redbook YoY on May 06, Fed Interest Rate Decision on May 07, Fed Press Conference, Initial Jobless Claims on May 8, Fed Balance Sheet, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count on May 09.

Top Gainers 

  • Reliance Industries up by 9.42% was the top gainer on Nifty for the week - Reliance Industries reported 6.44% rise in its consolidated net profit at Rs 22,611 crore for fourth quarter ended March 31, 2025 as compared to Rs 21,243 crore for the same quarter in the previous year. Total income of the company increased by 9.88% at Rs 2,69,478 crore for Q4FY25 as compared Rs 2,45,249 crore for the corresponding quarter previous year.
  • SBI Life Insurance up by 9.24% was another top gainer on Nifty for the week - SBI Life Insurance traded higher as it is reportedly eyeing for a 14% rise in individual Annualised Premium Equivalent (APE) and 12% growth in total APE in the financial year ending March 2026. Recently, the company reported marginal rise in its net profit at Rs 813.51 crore for the quarter under review as compared to Rs 810.80 crore for the same quarter in the previous year. 

Top Losers

  • Shriram Finance down by 14.16% was the top loser of the week on Nifty - Shriram Finance continue to remain under pressure after reporting lower than expected result for Q4FY25. The company reported 6.06% rise in consolidated net profit at Rs 2,143.77 crore for Q4FY25 as compared to Rs 2,021.28 crore for the corresponding quarter of previous year. Total income increased by 20.66% at Rs 11,460.25 crore for Q4FY25 as compared to Rs 9,497.85 crore for Q4FY24.
  • Bajaj Finserv down by 6.80% was another top loser of the week on Nifty - Bajaj Finserv traded lower as its Q4 numbers fails to cheer market participants. The company reported 14.07% rise in consolidated net profit at Rs 2416.64 crore for Q4FY25as compared to Rs 2118.53 crore for Q4FY24. The total income of the company increased by 14.21% at Rs 36596.43 crore for Q4FY25 as compared Rs 32041.93 crore for the corresponding quarter previous year.

Technical viewpoints

During the week, CNX Nifty touched the highest level of 24,589.15 on May 2 and lowest level of 23,847.85 on April 28. On the last trading day, the Nifty closed at 24,346.70 with weekly gain of 307.35 points or 1.28 percent. For the coming week, 23,933.32 followed by 23,519.93 are likely to be good support levels for the Nifty, while the index may face resistance at 24,674.62 and further at 25,002.53 levels.

US Market

The U.S. markets traded higher during the week amid positive developments on the trade front, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stating that the Trump administration had reached its first trade deal.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

U.S. construction spending unexpectedly falls 0.5% in March: Construction spending fell by 0.5 percent to an annual rate of $2.196 trillion in March after climbing by 0.6 percent to a revised rate of $2.207 trillion in February.

Manufacturing index in U.S. dips further into contraction territory in April: Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing PMI edged down to 48.7 in April after slipping to 49.0 in March, with a reading below 50 indicating contraction. 

Weekly jobless claims in U.S. rise much more than expected: Initial jobless claims climbed to 241,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week's revised level of 223,000. Street had expected jobless claims to inch up to 224,000.

Pending home sales in U.S. unexpectedly spike 6.1% March: Pending home sales index surged by 6.1 percent to 76.5 in March after jumping by 2.1 percent to a revised to 72.1 in February. Street had expected pending home sales to dip by 0.3 percent.

U.S. GDP unexpectedly dips in first quarter as imports soar: Real gross domestic product fell by 0.3 percent in the first quarter after surging by 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024. Street had expected GDP to rise by 0.4 percent.

European Market

European markets remained higher during the passing week, amid easing trade tensions, and on largely encouraging quarterly results from several big name companies. Investors also digested a slew of regional economic data.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Eurozone GDP growth gains strength in Q1: The preliminary flash estimates from Eurostat showed that the quarterly growth in gross domestic product doubled to 0.4 percent from 0.2 percent seen in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Italian GDP grows 0.3% in Q1: The preliminary data from the statistical office ISTAT showed that gross domestic product rose 0.3 percent sequentially in the first quarter, following a 0.2 percent rise in the second quarter. 

Italy inflation rises to 2.0%, highest in 19 months: The preliminary data from the statistical office showed that consumer price inflation accelerated to 2.0 percent in April from a 1.9 percent increase in March, as expected. 

French economy recovers in Q1: The flash data from the statistical office INSEE showed that gross domestic product grew 0.1 percent from the fourth quarter, when the economy shrank 0.1 percent. The rate came in line with expectations.

Eurozone economic sentiment at 4-month low: The survey data from the European Commission showed that the economic sentiment index declined to 93.6 in April from 95.0 in the previous month. The score was forecast to fall to 94.5. 

Asian Market

Asian markets traded mostly higher during passing week amid optimism about possible trade deals, with US President Donald Trump saying he has ‘potential’ trade deals with India, South Korea and Japan as well as expressed optimism about a resolution with China.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

BOJ keeps rates steady, cuts growth forecasts: As widely expected, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept short-term interest rates steady at 0.5% by a unanimous vote. The BoJ cut its forecast for GDP growth in 2025 from 1.1% to 0.5%.

Japan jobless rate ticks up to 2.5% in March: The unemployment rate in Japan came in at a seasonally adjusted 2.5 percent in March. That was higher than forecasts for 2.4 percent, which would have been unchanged from the February reading.

Japan retail sales climb 3.1% in March: The value of retail sales in Japan was up 3.1 percent on year in March- coming in at 14.063 trillion yen. That missed expectations for an increase of 3.6 percent and was up from 1.3 percent in February.

Japan industrial output sinks 1.1% in March: Industrial production in Japan was down a seasonally adjusted 1.1 percent on month in March. That missed forecasts for a decline of 0.5 percent following the 2.3 percent increase in February.

China’s factory activity drops to 16-month low in April: Chinese factory activity contracted at the fastest pace in 16 months in April. The official purchasing managers' index came in at 49.0 in April due to the escalating trade war with the U.S.
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