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Markets end slightly lower in passing week after US tariff pause
Apr-11-2025

Markets ended slightly lower in the passing week, recovering sharply from initial weakness, after President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on new reciprocal tariffs. Initially, markets traded under pressure amid rising fears of a global recession and a full-blown trade war triggered by Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Traders also took note of the RBI's rate cut move.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

RBI cuts repo rate by 25 bps to 6% for second time in a row: With an aim to support a shuttering economy hit by reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee unanimously voted to reduce the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 6% with immediate effect.

Indian economy likely to grow 6.7% in FY25: The Asian Development Bank in its latest report titled ‘the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2025’ has said that India’s GDP is expected to expand by 6.7% in FY25, on account of higher domestic demand, rising rural incomes, a strong services sector.

Unemployment rate declines slightly in 2024: The Periodic Labour Force Survey showed that the unemployment rate among persons of 15 years or above has declined to 4.9 per cent in calendar year 2024 compared to 5 per cent in the previous year, suggesting slight improvements in employment opportunities.

Moody's Analytics revises India's GDP growth forecast to 6.1% for 2025: Amid looming higher US reciprocal tariff threats, Moody's Analytics in its report titled 'APAC Outlook: U.S. Versus Them' has revised India's GDP growth forecast to 6.1 per cent for 2025 from 6.4 per cent in its March baseline.

Automobile retail sales in India rise 6% in FY25: Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) has said that automobile retail sales in India rose 6 per cent to 2,61,43,943 units in FY25 with rural areas performing better than urban regions across passenger vehicle and two-wheeler segments.

BSE movement for the week

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex slipped 207.43 points or 0.28% to 75,157.26 during the week ended April 11, 2025. The BSE Midcap index losses 234.29 points or 0.58% to 40,274.24, while Smallcap index slipped 68.82 points or 0.15% to 45,798.35. On the sectoral front, S&P BSE Realty was down by 260.23 points or 4.08% to 6,118.39, S&P BSE Metal was down by 692.28 points or 2.43% to 27,758.16 and S&P BSE Information Technology was down by 776.32 points or 2.35% to 32,299.26 were the top losers, while S&P BSE Consumer Durables was up by 1,859.98 points or 3.49% to 55,087.38, S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods was up by 651.03 points or 3.34% to 20,165.66, and S&P BSE Oil & Gas was up by 303.96 points or 1.25% to 24,535.43 were the top gainers on the BSE.

NSE movement for the week

The Nifty slipped 75.90 points or 0.33% to 22,828.55. On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), Nifty IT was down by 770.55 points or 2.30% to 32,740.85, Bank Nifty was down by 500.35 points or 0.97% to 51,002.35 and Nifty Mid Cap 100 decreased 144.45 points or 0.29% to 50,501.50, while Nifty Next 50 gained 4.85 points or 0.01% to 61,473.55.

FII transactions during the week

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in equity segment in the week, with gross purchases of Rs 41,871.28 crore and gross sales of Rs 58,604.45 crore, leading to a net outflow of Rs 16,733.17 crore. They also stood as net sellers in the debt segment with gross purchases of Rs 10,261.48 crore against gross sales of Rs 24,961.08 crore, resulting in a net outflow of Rs 14,699.60 crore. In hybrid segment, FIIs stood as net buyers, with gross purchases of Rs 110.85 crore and gross sales of Rs 88.28 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 22.57 crore. (Provisional)

Industry and Economy

Amid the rapidly evolving global trade landscape as a result of US tariffs, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said that the resilience of the economy and strength of domestic demand will continue to make India an engine of growth. She asserted that the economy was well placed to capitalise on domestic efficiencies and competitiveness as it tackles global headwinds. She also expressed her optimism over the successful conclusion of the India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations ‘sooner rather than later’, along with a Bilateral Investment Treaty. The minister said ‘The world has seen depressed growth for over several years, earlier it was low interest for long and now it’s going to be low growth for long, and that’s not happy news for anybody’. 

Outlook for the coming week

Indian equity markets ended the passing week in red amid growing global trade war fears. 

On the economy front, market-participants would be eyeing the data of Wholesale price index (WPI), which is scheduled to be release on April 15. On the same day, imports and exports data also scheduled to be release. Foreign Exchange Reserves and Passenger Vehicles Sales data scheduled to be release on April 18.

The coming week will mainly be guided by earnings, as lots of important companies will be announcing their numbers like HDFC Life Insurance Company, Infosys, Tata Elxsi, Mastek, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank etc.

On the global front, from the US, traders will first be eyeing Consumer Inflation Expectations on April 14 followed by Export Prices, Import Prices, Redbook on April 15, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production on April 16, Building Permits Prel, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count on April 17 and Fed Balance Sheet on April 18.

Top Gainers 

  • Nestle up by 6.82% was the top gainer on Nifty for the week - Nestle India expanded its presence in eastern part of the country by laying foundation stone for its upcoming factory in Khordha, Odisha. This is slated to be Nestle India’s tenth factory. The factory is being set up with an initial investment of approximately Rs 900 crore, in its first phase and is slated to manufacture products from its foods (prepared dishes and cooking aids) portfolio.
  • Power Grid Corporation of India up by 6.05% was another top gainer on Nifty for the week - Power Grid Corporation of India received board’s approval for the raising of Bonds as Unsecured, Non-convertible, Non-cumulative, Redeemable, Taxable POWERGRID Bonds-LXXXI (81st) Issue 2025-26 for an amount upto Rs 6,000 crore on Private Placement. Bonds are redeemable at par at the end of 10th year and interest payment on yearly basis. 

Top Losers 

  • Trent down by 15.87% was the top loser of the week on Nifty - Trent came under pressure amid reporting lower than expected revenue for Q4 and Financial Year 2024-25. In Q4FY25, the company’s standalone revenue, provisionally, estimated at Rs 4,334 crore, up 28 per cent from Rs 3,381 crore in the year-ago period. For FY25, the company posted a standalone revenue of Rs 17,624 crore, up 39 per cent from Rs 12,669 crore in the previous financial year (FY24).
  • Tata Steel down by 13.75% was another top loser of the week on Nifty - Metal stocks traded under pressure after Trump declared a substantial 104% tariff on goods from China. This sudden rise follows China's retaliatory actions and represents notable jump from Trump’s earlier tariff rates. Trump's tougher trade regulations against China, significant producer and consumer of base metals, sparked worries about vulnerability of China’s economic recovery.

Technical viewpoints

During the week, CNX Nifty touched the highest level of 23,214.70 on April 11 and lowest level of 21,743.65 on April 7. On the last trading day, the Nifty closed at 22,828.55 with weekly loss of 75.90 points or 0.33 percent. For the coming week, 21,976.57 followed by 21,124.58 are likely to be good support levels for the Nifty, while the index may face resistance at 23,447.62 and further at 24,066.68 levels.

US Market

The U.S. markets traded higher during the week after President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on new reciprocal tariffs on most countries to allow for negotiations. However, the pause will not apply to China.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly edge down 0.1% in March: The consumer price index edged down by 0.1 percent in March after rising by 0.2 percent in February. Street had expected consumer prices to inch up by 0.1 percent.

Weekly jobless claims in U.S. inch up in line with estimates: Initial jobless claims inched up to 223,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 219,000. The uptick by initial jobless claims came in line street estimates.

Fed minutes reiterate cautious approach to future interest rate decisions: The minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy revealed officials believe it remains appropriate to take a cautious approach to future interest rate decisions.

U.S. wholesale inventories rise in line with estimates in February: Wholesale inventories rose by 0.3 percent in February, matching the preliminary estimate as well as street expectations. Wholesale inventories climbed by 0.8 percent in January.

Thirty-Year bond auction attracts average demand: The Treasury Department revealed this month's auction of $22 billion worth of thirty-year bonds attracted average demand. The thirty-year bond auction drew a high yield of 4.813 percent.

European Market

European markets managed to garner gains during the passing week, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause for countries hit by higher U.S. tariffs, with the exception of China.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

UK GDP growth rebounds in February: Real gross domestic product grew 0.5% from the previous month following a nil growth in January. GDP was expected to climb 0.1%. On a yearly basis, real GDP advanced 1.4% compared to economists' forecast of 0.9%.

Spain inflation slows to 2.3% as estimated: Spain inflation eased to a five-month low in March, as initially estimated. Consumer prices gained 2.3% year-on-year in March, as estimated, following a 3.0% rise in February.

UK Recruiters report sharpest rise in Labor Supply: UK recruiters reported the steepest rise in permanent and temporary labor supply in more than four years in March, while job placements declined notably due to weaker economic confidence.

Italy industrial production falls in February: The statistical office ISTAT said that industrial production fell 0.9 percent from January, when output advanced 2.5 percent. 

French trade gap widens sharply: The data from the customs office showed that the trade shortfall rose unexpectedly to EUR 7.9 billion in February from EUR 6.5 billion in January. 

Asian Market

Asian markets, barring Nikkei composite index, ended lower during passing week, amid report that U.S. President Donald Trump paused most of his sweeping reciprocal tariffs for 90 days to allow more time for negotiations but raised the levies on China to 125%.

Some of the major developments during the week are:

Japan logs current account surplus in February: Japan posted a current account surplus of 4.061 trillion yen in February, up 48.4% on year. That beat forecasts for a surplus of 3.80 trillion yen following the 258 billion yen deficit in January.

Japan’s GDP grows 3% in February: Japan’s economy saw an annualized growth of 3% in February compared to the previous month, as companies hastened to export goods overseas before the implementation of U.S. tariffs. 

China's CPI eases in March: China’s consumer price index (CPI) showed signs of improvement in March, declining by 0.1% YoY. This represents an improvement compared to the 0.7% decline recorded in February.

China's PPI down 2.5% in March: China’s producer price index (PPI) declined by 2.5% YoY in March. PPI also recorded a 0.4% drop on monthly basis. The decline was driven by falling domestic oil prices.

Goldman Sachs cuts China GDP growth forecasts: Goldman Sachs cut China real GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 4.0% and 3.5%, saying the easing measures that China may resort to are unlikely to fully offset the hit due to tariffs.
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